Daily Forex Snapshots

Asian Session - Steady Open

April 28, 2008 10:21 AM CEST

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	CAD	0.82
	AUD	0.61
	NZD	0.60
	NOK	0.52
	EUR	0.33
	DKK	0.35
	CHF	0.31
	SEK	0.17
	GBP	0.11
	JPY	-0.18

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

Nikkei 225 Index	13,894.37	+ 0.22
Hang Seng Index	25,602.59	+ 0.33
Shanghai Index	3,473.38	- 2.37
FTSE futures	6,105.50	+ 0.80
DAX futures	6,975.50	+ 0.56
SMI Futures	7,488.00	+ 0.98
DJIA futures	12,893.00	+ 0.14

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	892.20	+ 0.66
Silver	17.00	+ 0.68
VIX	19.59	- 2.34
Crude wti	119.55	+ 0.86
USD Index	72.48	- 0.43

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

Consumer Price Index (april p) m/m

0.2%

0.5%

GE / 13.00

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9544
R 2: 0.9496
R 1: 0.9422
CURRENT: 0.9383
S 1: 0.9292
S 2: 0.9272
S 3: 0.9249

EURJPY
R 3: 166.17
R 2: 164.98
R 1: 163.83
CURRENT: 163.72
S 1: 162.67
S 2: 162.16
S 3: 160.81

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3887
R 2: 1.3746
R 1: 1.3659
CURRENT: 1.3600
S 1: 1.3571
S 2: 1.3470
S 3: 1.3318

Market Brief

Usd was slightly weaker in Asian session as markets ponder the critical FOMC meeting on Wednesday. EurUsd crept up to 1.5678 and AudUsd trended towards 0.9380. While a significant portion of the market is looking for further downward pressure on the Usd we are still holding that a shift now is premature. With telling data from the US in rate announcement / accompanying statement and NFP and Eurozone area flash HICP inflation markets will be on their feet this week. Our bearish expectations on the Usd revolve around the lack of real fundamental change in spite of the German IFO collapse last week. The Fed is widely expected to cut 25bp while markets are betting the accompanying statement will be more optimistic on the US economic activity and signal concern over inflation, potentially signaling the end of the Feds easing cycle. This outcome would give the Usd some support however with NFP expected to fall by -75k (unemployment tick up to 5.2%) it’s an indication that further damaging data has yet to be seen. And as data continue to soften the Fed will need to adjust rates and a return to Usd weakness. In addition with energy prices elevated it will be difficult for the Usd to sustain a rally.

In Japan retail sales beat expectation climbing to y/y 1.1% with fuel and food sales being core drivers. So over all it looks as if the strong inflation data has pushed up actual growth figures. Given last weeks nationwide core CPIs jump, which caused a sell off in JGBs, we are expecting the BoJ to hold rates this week and the probability of easing this year has dropped considerably.

8.30gmt - ECB’s Trichet speaks in Vienna

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