Daily Forex Snapshots

Asian Session - G7 Change Their Tone

April 14, 2008 9:28 AM CEST

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	JPY	0.47
	GBP	0.18
	CHF	0.11
	NOK	-0.04
	SEK	-0.10
	EUR	-0.17
	DKK	-0.17
	CAD	-0.26
	NZD	-0.48
	AUD	-0.51

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

Nikkei 225 Index	12,917.51	- 3.04
Hang Seng Index	23,847.88	- 3.32
Shanghai Index	3,296.67	- 5.61
FTSE futures	5,900.00	- 1.37
CAC futures	4,753.50	- 0.91
SMI Index	7,190.00	- 0.71
DJIA futures	12,328.00	- 0.08

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	920.93	- 0.47
Silver	17.48	- 1.63
VIX	23.45	+ 6.73
Crude wti	110.07	- 0.01
USD Index	72.05	+ 0.34

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

Producer Prices (Mar) Input	1.9%(+19.3	1.7%(+19.4	UK / 9.30
Producer Prices (Mar) Output	0.5%(+5.6%	0.3%(+5.7%	UK / 9.30
Producer Prices (Mar) Core	0.4%(+3.0%	0.2%(+3.0%	UK / 9.30
Industrial Production (Feb)	0.2%	0.9%(+3.8%	EZ / 10.00
Advance Retail Sales (Mar)	0.0%	-0.6%	US / 13.30
Core Retail Sales (Mar)	0.2%	-0.2%	US / 13.30
Business Inventories (Feb)	0.5%	0.8%	US / 15.00

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9499
R 2: 0.9473
R 1: 0.9348
CURRENT: 0.9244
S 1: 0.9206
S 2: 0.9177
S 3: 0.9100

EURJPY
R 3: 162.28
R 2: 161.72
R 1: 161.36
CURRENT: 158.65
S 1: 159.39
S 2: 158.81
S 3: 158.55

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3940
R 2: 1.3887
R 1: 1.3792
CURRENT: 1.3589
S 1: 1.3555
S 2: 1.3500
S 3: 1.3400

Market Brief

The communiqué of G7 finance ministers and central bank governors has slightly stronger than previous statements. The first statement regarding currencies, expressing the biggest change by the G7, regarded the unwarranted currency moves. the statement underlined that "since our last meeting, there have been at times sharp fluctuations in major currencies, and we are concerned about their possible implications for economic and financial stability. We continue to monitor exchange markets closely, and cooperate as appropriate.” The phrases `cooperate as appropriate` is a direct reference to joint intervention and will keep traders on their toes. Interestingly this strong language has been used during periods of intervention. The lack of clear focus on the Usd indicates a emphasis on volatility rather then specific levels. The second statement was on the gloomy outlook of the financial markets and downside risk to global growth. Finally while the section covering China was identical to the prior statement, it's worth reviwing it. As it stands it reads as follows, “we welcome China's decision to increase the flexibility of its currency, but in view of its rising current account surplus and domestic inflation, we encourage accelerated appreciation of its effective exchange rate." After making some significant gains on the back of the G7 communiqué the Usd has failed to hold its firm footing and we expect the advantage the Usd is enjoying to be short lived. However, according to IMM positioning report speculators added to short-USD positions against most currencies, but added even more to long-USD positions....

Today’s UK producer prices figures are expected to show that price pressures are continuing to increase and this should keep Gbp firm.

With consumer confidence slumping today US retail sales will be critical. However this figure tends to show considerable distortion especially given the early Easter. But with deteriorating fundamentals in the US the risk are clearly to the downside.

22.30gmt - ECB’s Trichet speaks at New York University

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