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European Session - A Dollar Revival ?
April 01, 2008 6:07 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | CAD | 0.02 |  |  | GBP | -0.45 | | | NZD | -0.71 | | | AUD | -0.79 | | | DKK | -1.23 | | | EUR | -1.24 | | | SEK | -1.30 | | | CHF | -1.84 | | | JPY | -1.89 | | | NOK | -2.07 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 12,656.42 | + 1.04 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5,852.60 | + 2.63 | | CAC 40 Index | 4,866.00 | + 3.37 | | DAX Index | 6,720.33 | + 2.83 | | SMI Index | 7,494.00 | + 3.82 | | DJIA Index | 12,523.60 | + 2.12 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 2,332.05 | + 2.32 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 879.63 | - 4.06 | | Silver | 16.68 | - 3.22 | | VIX | 23.11 | - 9.76 | | Crude wti | 101.35 | - 0.20 | | USD Index | 72.52 | + 0.99 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Scheduled Release | -- | -- | -- |
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Currency Tech |
USDJPY
R 3: 103.70 T
R 2: 103.59
R 1: 102.19
CURRENT 101.71
S 1: 98.46 M
S 2: 95.74 S
S 3: 94.83 T
GBPUSD
R 3: 2.0577 T
R 2: 2.0447 S
R 1: 2.0271 M
CURRENT 1.9778
S 1: 1.9717 M
S 2: 1.9354 S
S 3: 1.8945 T
EURUSD
R 3: 1.6000 K
R 2: 1.5905 S
R 1: 1.5850 M
CURRENT 1.5611
S 1: 1.5533 M
S 2: 1.5000 K
S 3: 1.4500 P
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
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Market Brief |
The dollar is regaining ground in afternoon trading. The major currencies have been more or less bludgeoned since early in the European session. Many saw the morning announcement concerning UBS as the trigger. The surprise was not to see a similar rebound in the price of the gold and silver. Could the dollar have regained its traditional role of save haven? If so, for how long? Could the break through the 1.53 level beget thereafter a possible rally in favor of the greenback? Possibly. Consider the Commodities. Oil, copper, aluminium, zinc and lead have all lost ground recently. Furthermore the speculative net long position in gold declined to its lowest level since the beginning of 2008 tumbling by 8.5 per cent. The reason of this significance is that recently the commodities market has seen important inflows of investors which have helped these same commodities to gain in price. These investors have now become the dominant player in the market. As important hedge fund started to unwind their positions notably in commodity over the past weeks, investors followed suit sending the prices of these commodities reeling. It should be noted that the short term dashboard of these same investors is made up of US dollars. The sell off clearly prompted a revival of the dollar as a refuge against the position on investments like these commodities. The dollar could also gain a support from the poor footing of the Euro and the sterling. There is an overriding concern that the Europe will soon be facing a double edged conflict: a rise in food price while all the while succumbing to decaying confidence in economic sentiment. Weak performance is also visible in New Zealand where the business confidence numbers are also decaying. The dollar has much to gain in such circumstances. A caveat is necessary nonetheless. Oil is still under some pressure from the tensions in Iraq and around the Middle East in general. More important the emerging markets shouldn’t be disregarded. As a whole these markets are expected to see a 7 per cent rise in their gross GDP, while the developed countries, with the US of course, are expected to see a mere 2 per cent. It is recognized that the consumers in these emerging markets are the main driving force in world consumption. There is a lesson to be applied: bull markets last longer than bear markets. If it proves to be true in our present discursion, the dollar could still have some rough days ahead.
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Asian Session - UBS Sinks Risk Appetite
April 01, 2008 9:59 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | CAD | 0.06 | | | JPY | -0.16 | | | AUD | -0.34 | | | GBP | -0.43 | | | NZD | -0.44 | | | SEK | -0.73 | | | DKK | -0.74 | | | EUR | -0.81 | | | CHF | -0.81 | | | NOK | -0.97 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 12,656.42 | + 1.04 | | Hang Seng Index | 22,747.93 | - 0.44 | | Shanghai Index | 3,329.16 | - 4.13 | | FTSE futures | 5,686.50 | - 0.37 | | CAC futures | 4,689.00 | - 0.59 | | SMI Futures | 7,134.00 | - 0.16 | | DJIA futures | 12,252.00 | - 0.03 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 909.15 | - 0.81 | | Silver | 17.03 | - 1.21 | | VIX | 25.61 | - 0.39 | | Crude wti | 101.17 | - 0.40 | | USD Index | 72.15 | + 0.48 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| ILO Unemployment Rate (Feb) | 7.5% | 7.6% | GE / 7.00 | | Bundesbank Unemployment Rate (Mar) | 7.9% | 8.0% | GE / 8.55 | | CIPS/RBS Report on Manufacturing (Mar) | 51.0 | 51.3 | UK / 9.30 | | Unemployment Rate (Feb) | 7.1% | 7.1% | EZ / 10.00 | | Raw Materials Price (Feb) m/m | 2.7% | 3.4% | CA / 13.30 | | Industrial Production Price (feb) m/m | 0.7% | 0.9% | CA / 13.30 | | ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar) | 47.5 | 48.3 | US / 15.00 | | Construction Spending (Feb) | -1.0% | -1.7% | US / 15.00 | | ISM Prices Paid (mar) | 75.0 | 75.5 | US /1 5.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9290
R 2: 0.9254
R 1: 0.9151
CURRENT: 0.9080
S 1: 0.9073
S 2: 0.8979
S 3: 0.8953
EURJPY
R 3: 160.00
R 2: 159.15
R 1: 158.35
CURRENT: 156.81
S 1: 155.90
S 2: 155.16
S 3: 153.02
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4136
R 2: 1.4046
R 1: 1.3940
CURRENT: 1.3803
S 1: 1.3741
S 2: 1.3696
S 3: 1.3500
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Market Brief |
FX markets were steady in Asian session until late in the day when news of another financial institution in trouble sent traders looking for the exists. It was reported that UBS sought $15b in additional capital. Switzerland's largest bank, which is the European bank most afflicted by the mortgage crisis that began in the US, is poised to announce further losses of SFr8.2bn for the first-quarter. There is also an imbroglio as to how the bank might consider facing all its problems. There is a motion from a Swiss pension fund asking for a raise of SFr10bn in rights issue. the bank seeks on the other hand a broader resolution so as to maintain maximum flexibility. The pressure on Marcel Ospel, the bank's chairman, to resign has been mounting. He has always sought, however, to steer the bank through the crisis. The rest everyone knows. The news caught the markets off guard and EurUsd tumbled from 1.5780 to 1.5665 as investors most certainly unwound risk and looked for the greenback as a safe haven. A trade that was duplicated across the G10 currencies. Risk appetite had been steady increase with the help of Paulson, equity markets, and stronger US data but it looks like in the short term the credit crisis has created a risk adverse environment.
In Japan, the Tankan survey was overall weaker then expected falling to a 4-year low in q1. The biggest drop was in CAPEX where capital spending fell 1.6%. After the release a Japanese spokesman said that the report would not change the government's forecast as it still expects the economic recovery to stall.
In Australia, the RBA left it benchmark rate at 7.25% as widely expected. But it was the accompanying statement which moved the Aud to lower levels : "[the] tightening in financial conditions has been substantial [and] inflation will remain high in short term, but decline over time". had clear overtones of prudence albeit less hawkish then the past two statements. Consequently traders sold the Aud as the probability of another hike decreased.
In the Eurozone today the release of both euro-zone and German unemployment rates will be watched. While the labor market in the euro-zone remains in healthy territory there are increasing signals that the recovery has peaked.
In the US ISM manufacturing index will hold the market's attention. We expect the indicator to fall slightly to 47.5. While this reading is more consistent with an economic slowdown then outright recession, the index is perhaps overly optimistic.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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