Daily Forex Snapshots

European Session - Waiting for ISM

March 05, 2008 3:24 PM CET

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	CAD	0.63
	AUD	0.37
	NOK	0.30
	SEK	0.06
	DKK	0.06
	EUR	0.05
	NZD	-0.01
	CHF	-0.05
	GBP	-0.10
	JPY	-0.81

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

FTSE 100 Index	5,767.70	- 0.87
CAC 40 Index	4,712.75	+ 0.78
DAX Index	6,545.04	- 2.16
SMI Index	7,320.86	+ 0.60
DJIA futures	12,228.00	+ 0.04
S&P future	1,328.00	+ 0.07
Nasdaq futures	1,746.25	+ 0.21

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	966.10	+ 0.21
Silver	19.64	- 0.72
VIX	25,52	- 2.89
Crude wti	100.04	+ 0.52
USD Index	73.80	+ 0.18

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

Factory Orders (Jan)	-2.5%	2.3%	US / 15.00
ISM Non-Manufacturing Activity Index (Feb)	--	41.9	US / 15.00
ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Index (Feb)	47.5	44.6	US / 15.00
Fed’s Beige Book	--	--	US / 19.00
RBNZ Rate Announcement	8.25%	8.25%	NZ / 20.00

Currency Tech

USDJPY
R 3: 110.10 T
R 2: 108.00 K
R 1: 105.00 S
CURRENT 103.58
S 1: 102.61 M
S 2: 101.68 S
S 3: 101.22 T

GBPUSD
R 3: 2.0100 S
R 2: 2.0000 P
R 1: 1.9976 M
CURRENT 1.9822
S 1: 1.9721 M
S 2: 1.9630 K
S 3: 1.9105 S

EURUSD
R 3: 1.5300 K
R 2: 1.5239 M
R 1: 1.5229 M
CURRENT 1.5233
S 1: 1.5144 M
S 2: 1.5000 K
S 3: 1.4500 P

S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

Market Brief

After the release of weak US data the Usd saw broad based selling. ADP shrank by 23k while Jan figures were revised down to 119. These figures suggest that conditions in the labor market have further deteriorated and do not bode well for Friday's payroll figures.

On the continent Eurozone retail sales raised warning bells as y/y slipped to -0.1% as the consumer failed to assist the economy.

Next on the US docket will be the much watched non-manufacturing ISM. After the collapse of the figure in jan, which fell to recessionary levels for the first time since 9/11, markets will be keen to see the direction taken. However, just like the last time we expect this figure to rebound slightly. Nonetheless we expect in the near-term the Usd to continue to come under pressure.

Asian Session - Cad Under Pressure

March 05, 2008 9:57 AM CET

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	CAD	0.14
	AUD	0.06
	NOK	0.04
	SEK	-0.20
	NZD	-0.21
	EUR	-0.32
	DKK	-0.33
	GBP	-0.35
	CHF	-0.49
	JPY	-0.81

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

Nikkei 225 Index	12,972.06	- 0.15
Hang Seng Index	23,136.59	+ 0.07
Shanghai Index	4,292.65	- 0.98
FTSE futures	5,735.50	- 0.79
DAX futures	6,625.50	+ 1.10
SMI Futures	7,265.00	- 1.55
DJIA futures	12,228.00	+ 0.04

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	966.10	+ 0.21
Silver	19.64	- 0.72
VIX	25.52	- 2.89
Crude wti	100.04	+ 0.52
USD Index	73.80	+ 0.18

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

PMI Services (Feb Final)	52.3	52.3p	EZ / 9.00
PMI Composite (Feb Final)	52.7	52.7p	EZ / 9.00
CIPS/RBS Report on Services (Feb)	52.0	52.5	UK / 9.30
Retail Sales (Jan)	0.3%(+0.1%	-0.1%(-2.0	EZ / 10.00
BRC Shop Price Index (Feb)	--	-0.5%(+1.2	UK / 10.30
ADP Employment Change (Feb)	18k	126k	US / 13.15
Non-Farm Productivity (Q4 Final)	1.8%	2.6%p	US / 13.15
Unit Labour Costs (Q4 Final)	2.1%	2.1%p	US / 13.15
Factory Orders (Jan)	-2.5%	2.3%	US / 13.15
ISM Non-Manufacturing Activity Index (Feb)	--	41.9	US / 15.00
ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Index (Feb)	47.5	44.6	US / 15.00
Fed’s Beige Book	--	--	US / 19.00
RBNZ Rate Announcement	8.25%	8.25%	NZ / 20.00

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9578
R 2: 0.9555
R 1: 0.9499
CURRENT: 0.9254
S 1: 0.9259
S 2: 0.9122
S 3: 0.9006

EURJPY
R 3: 161.04
R 2: 160.19
R 1: 157.54
CURRENT: 157.25
S 1: 155.95
S 2: 154.88
S 3: 154.07

USDSGD
R 3: 1.4219
R 2: 1.4152
R 1: 1.4063
CURRENT: 1.3897
S 1: 1.3882
S 2: 1.3865
S 3: 1.3800

Market Brief

Usd regained some strength in Asian session as the focuse shifted to the global economic environment. UsdJpy bounced off 102.66 support before heading to 103.71 while EurUsd slid below the 152.00 level to 151.77. Cad came under significant selling pressure as the combination of lower crude & gold prices and a 50bp cut by the BoC had the market liqudating long positions. Oil moved below the 100brl mark as speculation that OPEC would increase supply and US inventories have grown. Our expectations that oil and commodity prices will stay elevated will balance slowing growth and lower interest rate differentials keeping thereby the UsdCad in the 0.9800 – 1.0200 range.

In Australia GDP y/y printed at 3.9% better then the 3.6% reading expected. Strong consumer spending and investment helped pushed the figure higher. Looking at AudUsd trading, the markets seems uncertain on how the handle this strong data. After yesterday's RBA hike and dovish subsequent comments (although they are holding to a strong tightening bias) the market seems to have pulled away from another hike in 2008, selling Aud heavily in the last two days. We believe there is still room for the Aud to strengthen in the near term especially if commodity prices and equity markets cooperate.

Market will be waiting for a wealth of data being released in the US. Perhaps the most watched will be non-manufacturing ISM and ADP. After the collapse of the figure in jan. which fell to recessionary levels for the first time since 9/11, markets will be keen to see the new direction. However just like the previous time we expect this figure to rebound slightly today as well. Along with the employment component of the ISM the ADP release we will have further clues to the health of the US labor market in front of Fridays payrolls.

ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.