Daily Forex Snapshots

European Session - Will Investors No longer Fear to Tread?

March 28, 2008 5:41 PM CET

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	JPY	0.03
	SEK	-0.26
	DKK	-0.33
	EUR	-0.35
	AUD	-0.46
	CAD	-0.49
	CHF	-0.56
	NOK	-0.71
	GBP	-0.78
	NZD	-1.18

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

Nikkei 225 Index	12,820.47	+ 1.71
FTSE 100 Index	5,685.10	- 0.57
CAC 40 Index	4,695.92	- 0.50
DAX Index	6,554.52	- 0.35
DJIA Index	12,315.07	+ 0.10
S&P 500 Index	1,327.81	+ 0.15
NASDAQ 100 Index	2,286.52	+ 0.24

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	927.33	- 2.09
Silver	17.79	- 3.52
VIX	25.14	- 2.85
Crude wti	105.21	- 2.20
USD Index	71.82	+ 0.22

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

No Scheduled Releases

Currency Tech

USDJPY
R 3: 110.10 T
R 2: 105.00 S
R 1: 101.04 M
CURRENT 99.66
S 1: 99.63 M
S 2: 95.74 S
S 3: 95.00 T

GBPUSD
R 3: 2.0577 T
R 2: 2.0447 S
R 1: 2.0100 P
CURRENT 1.9909
S 1: 1.9736 M
S 2: 1.9337 S
S 3: 1.9105 K

EURUSD
R 3: 1.6000 K
R 2: 1.5904 S
R 1: 1.5832 M
CURRENT 1.5754
S 1: 1.5341 M
S 2: 1.5000 K
S 3: 1.4500 P

S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

Market Brief

Currency traders could very well be focused on the decline of the Sterling as it dropped to record lows against the euro. Storm clouds are festering around the pound and this is clearly pressuring the Mervyn King and the Bank of England to lower its rates. Some see the cause of this recent bout of pessimism on the pound in the pale showing from the fourth quarter UK current account deficit. Others are seeing that the risk premium on the pound is steadily rising and investors are more and more risk aversive to the levels the pound is reaching. This feeling has been underscored by the comments yesterday by the ECB who are set for action to calm the financial markets. The ECB is clearly worried about the pressure building among the eurozone banks and their impact on the real economy. Fears of a crisis à la Bear Sterns are still prevalent among ECB directors who spoke of heightened uncertainties.

Pressures are also building in certain emerging markets. The Turkish lira has come again under pressure because of mounting political pressure which is clearly inconveniencing the over all enthusiasm growing around global emerging markets. All this being said, the dollar’s decline is still attracting attention even while it may appear as over stretched.

US consumer spending increased by 0.1 per cent m/m in February and it seems that consumer confidence is reeling. And as the PCE deflator is still located in the comfort zone of the Fed a further rate cut could be necessary. In the Far East this could come as bad news. The Yes is rising all this time and is making the Japanese industrial sector very uneasy about the present levels it is perched on. The Bank of Japan might ask for assistance. The question is the dollar weak enough to warrant a concerted action? Over and above this, the question is, are investors ready to look beyond traditional lines of investment and seek profits in up to now “unconventional” markets?

Asian Session - N.Korea Tests Missle

March 28, 2008 10:16 AM CET

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	AUD	-0.15
	SEK	-0.20
	CAD	-0.32
	NZD	-0.35
	DKK	-0.36
	EUR	-0.37
	JPY	-0.38
	NOK	-0.39
	CHF	-0.57
	GBP	-0.57

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

Nikkei 225 Index	12,820.47	+ 1.71
Hang Seng Index	23,267.22	+ 2.66
Shanghai Index	3,580.15	+ 4.95
FTSE futures	5,7420.00	+ 1.01
DAX futures	6,651.00	- 0.01
CAC futures	4,726.50	+ 0.56
DJIA futures	12,370.00	+ 0.39

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	942.51	- 0.49
Silver	18.25	- 1.00
VIX	25.88	- 0.76
Crude wti	107.06	- 0.43
USD Index	71.73	+ 0.09

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

National Accounts (Q4) q/q(y/y)	0.6%(+2.9%	0.6%(+2.9%	UK / 9.30
Balance of Payments (Q4)	-£18.3bn	-£20.1bn	UK / 9.30
KOF Economic Barometer (Mar)	1.60	1.65	SZ / 10.30
Personal Income (Feb)	0.3%	0.3%	US / 12.30
Personal Spending (Feb)	0.1%	0.4%	US / 12.30
PCE Deflator (Feb)	3.5%	3.7%	US / 12.30
Core PCE Deflator (Feb)	0.1%(+2.1%	0.3%(+2.2%	US / 12.30
Univ. of Michigan Cons. Conf. Index (Mar Final)	70.0	70.5p	US / 14.00

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9354
R 2: 0.9290
R 1: 0.9254
CURRENT: 0.9189
S 1: 0.9177
S 2: 0.9122
S 3: 0.9073

EURJPY
R 3: 160.00
R 2: 159.15
R 1: 158.03
CURRENT: 157.58
S 1: 155.90
S 2: 155.16
S 3: 153.02

USDSGD
R 3: 1.4136
R 2: 1.4046
R 1: 1.3940
CURRENT: 1.3814
S 1: 1.3741
S 2: 1.3696
S 3: 1.3500

Market Brief

Usd was steady in Asian session as volumes were thin. Majors were range bound for most of the morning with a jolt of risk aversion as news of the latest missile test by North Korea hit the market. Yesterday US data was broadly better then expected giving the Usd a temporary reprieve from selling. However we see this bullish sentiment to have a very short half life. US consumer consumption unexpectedly revised to 2.3% from 1.9% while inflation indicators eased moderately. Markets are still uncertain about how much of the US downbeat economic condition is already priced in to the Usd. However even if a large portion of weakness is already accounted for we believe that when traders will actually see the disturbing data which corresponds with a recession such as negative GDP or Wednesday's durable good orders, the Usd will come under renewed pressure.

With BoJ Governor Suda hinting to a possible rate hike yesterday markets were particular interesting in Japan. Inflation pressure was recorded across the board with core CPI hitting 1.0% vs. 0.9% exp. UsdJpy trended down to 99.31 before North Koreas action reversed the downward slide and the market began to price in a lower probability of a rate cut in the next 12 months (from 17bp to 14bp).

Nzd and Aud were both strong performers in Asia. New Zealand real GDP q4 increased 1.0% q/q & 3.7% y/y, the strongest quarterly growth since q3 2004. RBNZ Governor Bollard commented that inflation pressures in New Zealand remain relatively strong and the current setting of 8.25% with a flat outlook remains appropriate. Both currencies are still highly coupled with US and Europe growth and commodity prices.

In the US the market will be watching Feb income and spending for signals on the health of the consumer and hints to q1 GDP. Retail sales increased moderately which suggests real consumer was stable providing more support that GDP contracted in q1.

ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.