Daily Forex Snapshots

European Session - IFO Gives Euro Support

March 26, 2008 4:58 PM CET

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	NOK	1.32
	CHF	1.06
	JPY	1.01
	SEK	0.87
	EUR	0.83
	DKK	0.81
	AUD	0.43
	CAD	0.43
	NZD	-0.15
	GBP	-0.21

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

Nikkei 225 Index	12,706.63	- 0.30
FTSE 100 Index	5,653.50	- 0.62
CAC 40 Index	4,670.84	- 0.45
DAX Index	6,495.66	- 0.44
SMI Index	7,183.02	- 0.71
DJIA Index	12,461.61	- 0.56
S&P 500 Index	1,346.94	- 0.44

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	947.40	+ 0.91
Silver	18.09	+ 0.72
VIX	26.22	+ 1.94
Crude wti	103.23	+ 1.98
USD Index	71.77	- 0.69

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

New Home Sales (feb) m/m

-1.7%

-2.8%

US / 14.00

Currency Tech

USDJPY
R 3: 110.10 T
R 2: 105.00 S
R 1: 100.00 P
CURRENT 99.33
S 1: 99.63 M
S 2: 95.74 S
S 3: 95.00 T

GBPUSD
R 3: 2.0577 T
R 2: 2.0447 S
R 1: 2.0100 P
CURRENT 1.9976
S 1: 1.9736 M
S 2: 1.9337 S
S 3: 1.9105 K

EURUSD
R 3: 1.6000 K
R 2: 1.5904 S
R 1: 1.5832 M
CURRENT 1.5726
S 1: 1.5528 S
S 2: 1.5000 K
S 3: 1.4500 P

S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

Market Brief

FX markets were actively in European session as a few discrete events had traders scrambling.

First were the comments from BoE Governor Meryn King during MPC testimony to Treasury Select Committee who stated "[...] this is not an economy that has completely grounded to a halt but we are looking ahead and expect some slowing….” GbpUsd sold off as the market hurried to price in easing as early as April.

Second was the German IFO which caught the market completely off guard. Most participants had risk slanted to the downside but that was not to be. German IFO Current Assessment printed up to 111.5 vs. 109.5 exp while hit Expectations 98.4 vs. 97.8 exp. With the economic engine of the Euro zone still humming along in light of an elevated Eur and slowing global demand this was clearly a positive. An economy which is declining at a moderate pace will give the ECB greater maneuverability with interest rates and keep supporting the Eur.

And the final event was US durable Goods Order Feb which fell -1.7% vs. 0.7% exp on the back of weak Jan figure. This is just further indication that when an economy drops into recession things unwind very quickly. Watch for further Usd weakness.

16.00gmt - Fed's Evan speaks
17.30gmt - Fed's Fisher speaks

Asian Session - Japan Trade Surplus Falls

March 26, 2008 9:27 AM CET

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	NOK	0.53
	JPY	0.27
	CHF	0.27
	SEK	0.24
	GBP	0.16
	EUR	0.04
	DKK	0.07
	CAD	-0.10
	AUD	-0.27
	NZD	-0.73

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

Nikkei 225 Index	12,706.63	- 0.30
Hang Seng Index	22,566.89	+ 0.45
Shanghai Index	3,606.86	- 0.67
FTSE futures	5,703.00	+ 3.38
DAX futures	6,572.50	- 0.40
SMI Futures	7,163.00	+ 3.42
DJIA futures	12,458.00	- 0.45

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	937.48	- 0.14
Silver	17.87	- 0.48
VIX	25.72	- 0.01
Crude wti	101.68	+ 0.45
USD Index	72.25	- 0.03

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

Current Account (Jan)	--	-€10.3bn	EZ / 9.00
IFO Business Climate Index (Mar)	103.5	104.1	GE / 9.00
Durable Goods Orders (Feb)	0.7%	-5.3%	US / 12.30
Core Durable Goods Orders (Feb)	-0.3%	-1.6%	US / 12.30
New Home Sales (Feb)	577,000	588,000	US / 14.00

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9290
R 2: 0.9225
R 1: 0.9180
CURRENT: 0.9151
S 1: 0.9073
S 2: 0.8880
S 3: 0.8953

EURJPY
R 3: 157.95
R 2: 157.02
R 1: 156.77
CURRENT: 156.09
S 1: 155.15
S 2: 153.02
S 3: 151.73

USDSGD
R 3: 1.4136
R 2: 1.4045
R 1: 1.3940
CURRENT: 1.3812
S 1: 1.3740
S 2: 1.3695
S 3: 1.3500

Market Brief

Usd was slightly weaker in Asian session as risk appetite remains stable. Asian equity markets are mixed with European stock market futures following the trend despite weakness in US consumer confidence released yesterday. Commodities ended their downward slide suggesting a respite to liquidation in risk and de-leveraging which support the Usd.

Japans Trade surplus printed at Y970.0b vs Y1145b exp while most regions saw decent growth with the exception being the exports to the US, which dropped for the 12 consecutive month. In addition imports adjusted upwards to inflated oil prices, weighing on surplus and illustrating Japan's direct exposure to fluctuation of energy cost.

Iceland unscheduled 125bp hike yesterday is gaining much attention. The decesion was in response to the rapid decline in the krona and uncomfortably high inflation levels. Though the central bank's hike provided some market confidence, it is unlikely to significantly cushion the ISK.

In Europe IFO will be criticized. The past two IFO index has surprised the market onthe upside reassuring traders that the German economy is defying the global trend. However this month markets are expecting a slight moderation. Global demands has deteriorated more rapidly in recent months which have deteriorated current conditions.

In the US durable goods are looking to pick up with the assistance of Boeing and new aircraft orders. New Home sales are expected to be broadly unchanged however with the NAHB and existing sales somewhat positive it would be premature to predict the bottom of the market. With mortgage rate creeping upwards we could see sales going lower near term.

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