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European Session - Rally in USD on Commodity Weakness
March 19, 2008 5:28 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
 | SEK | -0.66 | | | JPY | -0.71 | | | CHF | -1.10 | | | NZD | -1.16 | | | DKK | -1.16 | | | EUR | -1.18 | | | NOK | -1.18 | | | AUD | -1.28 | | | CAD | -1.68 | | | GBP | -2.09 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE 100 Index | 5,544.20 | - 1.09 | | CAC 40 Index | 4,567.25 | - 0.33 | | DAX Index | 6,355.07 | - 0.59 | | SMI Index | 7,078.36 | + 0.91 | | DJIA Index | 12,369.37 | - 0.18 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 2,263.74 | - 0.19 | | S&P 500 Index | 1,331.12 | + 0.02 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 943.68 | - 3.92 | | Silver | 18.34 | - 7.04 | | VIX | 26.13 | + 1.31 | | Crude wti | 105.28 | - 3.78 | | USD Index | 71.92 | + 0.48 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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Currency Tech |
USDJPY
R 3: 101.22 M
R 2: 100.00 P
R 1: 99.11 S
CURRENT 99.34
S 1: 95.74 M
S 2: 95.00 T
S 3: 79.70 K
GBPUSD
S 3: 2.0577 T
S 2: 2.0447 S
S 1: 2.0140 M
CURRENT 1.9825
R 1: 2.0000 P
R 2: 1.9630 K
R 3: 1.9337 S
EURUSD
S 3: 1.6000 K
S 2: 1.5904 S
S 1: 1.5332 M
CURRENT1.5612
R 1: 1.5528 S
R 2: 1.5000 K
R 3: 1.4500 P
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
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Market Brief |
Both the Sterling and the Pound are having a tough ride as investors expect further rates to loom over the markets in the months to come. In the UK the surprise came from the minutes released by the BoE. The governors were to maintain the rate at 5.25 per cent. The vote was 7-2 in favor. Pundits were expecting 8-1 vote and were clearly taken by surprise when Deputy Governor John Greive to join his colleague David Blanchflower in asking for a rate cut. Markets took this decision at worst as an resentment at best as a possible shift in policy. As a result the sterling fell over a per cent against the euro and by almost 2 per cent against the yen.
The Usd has recovered from this morning selling, as the sell-off in commodity markets has revived demand for the greenback. Traders have sold the dollar to purchase assets like gold and oil, and now the market is seeing some unwinding of these positions. In addition the dollar rallied because investors see the top of the euro rally and were also interested in the fact the Fed has still fire power for the future – if need be. More rates cuts are still being factored in by the markets which is why, when the dust settled, the greenback started to take the same direction as the pound. This being said, the dollar’s fate now is also hooked to the fate of the performance of the American investment banks. Despite good news today that Morgan Stanley 1Q profit topped estimates, the dollar is still close to a precipice that could send it reeling further if more bad news were to come out of the US financial sector. Clearly, the fall in oil prices has now lost its glitter towards investors who in other circumstances would have seen quieter times for the US currency.
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Asian Session - Usd Strength on Fed Cuts
March 19, 2008 10:29 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NZD | 0.59 |  | | | AUD | 0.54 | | | NOK | -0.11 | | | CAD | -0.17 | | | SEK | -0.27 | | | JPY | -0.39 | | | CHF | -0.40 | | | DKK | -0.52 | | | EUR | -0.55 | | | GBP | -0.59 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 12,260.44 | + 2.47 | | Hang Seng Index | 21.901.86 | + 2.41 | | Shanghai Index | 3,761,61 | + 2.52 | | FTSE futures | 5,587.00 | + 2.89 | | DAX futures | 6,462.00 | + 1.09 | | SMI Futures | 7,021.00 | + 3.72 | | DJIA futures | 12,378.00 | - 0.19 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 990.70 | + 0.86 | | Silver | 19.89 | + 0.83 | | VIX | 25.79 | - 20.00 | | Crude wti | 108.61 | - 0.71 | | USD Index | 71.58 | + 0.01 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| MPC Mins. (5th/6th March) (hold-25bps cut-50 bps c | -- | -- | UK / 9.30 | | Unemployment Rate (Feb) | 2.5% | 2.5% | UK / 9.30 | | Unemployment Change (Feb) | -5,000 | -10,800 | UK / 9.30 | | Average Earnings (Jan) (%3myy) | 3.8% | 3.8% | US / 9.30 | | Trade Balance (Jan) s.a. | -€0.4bn | -€2.1bn | EZ / 10.00 | | CBI Monthly Trends Survey (Mar) | +1 | +3 | UK / 11.00 | | Interest Rate Announcement | 15.25% | 15.25% | Tur / 17.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9499
R 2: 0.9473
R 1: 0.9449
CURRENT: 0.9345
S 1: 0.9167
S 2: 0.9128
S 3: 0.9122
EURJPY
R 3: 159.22
R 2: 157.96
R 1: 157.03
CURRENT: 155.65
S 1: 155.06
S 2: 152.57
S 3: 151.81
USDSGD
R 3: 1.3983
R 2: 1.3926
R 1: 1.3878
CURRENT: 1.3807
S 1: 1.3741
S 2: 1.3696
S 3: 1.3500
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Market Brief |
The Usd was stronger in Asian session as the markets pondered the less then expected 75bp Fed cut. EurUsd slipped abruptly at the open, dropping to 1.5614 from 1.5715 while UsdJpy movde briefly above the 100 mark before sliding back to 998.82. US equities then rallied back to post an impressive 420 point gain and Asian markets follow their heels. The combination of the Fed cuts along with the 2 major investment banks (GS and Lehman) posting better then expected earnings inspired the relief rally and allowed risk aversion to ease. AUD and NZD were two riskier currencies which were boosted by this. Overall the smaller than expected Fed move proved positive for the Usd as it helped support the growing argument that Fed's efforts in the introduction of the term securities lending facility last week and a new facility for primary dealers on Sunday could provide some short term relief to the financial markets and risk aversion trades. However this is fragile environment since we believe the worst is not over. In Asian rumors suggesting that additional troubles within some financial institutions have lowered market optimism.
In Japan the opposition party has rejected the government's second candidate for the role of BoJ governor, Tanami. This is certainly not a good time to be without a captain at teh helm. With an appreciating Jpy and financial market uncertainty ripe, this lack of a clear BoJ chairman will restrict Japan's monetary options as well as its ability to cooperate with international monetary authorities.
In China the PBoC hiked commercial banks' required reserves by 50bp to 15.5%. This was the second time this year as the Bank looks to tighten monetary policy to fight soaring inflation.
Markets will be watching euro-zone trade balance as speculation around slowing global demand and strong euro should be taking its toll. However we are expected a rebound from Dec. sharp drop, led by a strong pickup in exports. The positive data should be Eur supportive.
In the UK minutes of March MPC meeting released today should speak of interest rate since the current emphasis remains inflation.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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