Daily Forex Snapshots

European Session - Pushing Past 1.55

March 12, 2008 4:32 PM CET

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	EUR	0.88
	DKK	0.86
	CHF	0.70
	SEK	0.66
	GBP	0.60
	NOK	0.59
	JPY	0.43
	AUD	0.41
	CAD	0.21
	NZD	0.02

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

FTSE 100 Index	5,782.30	+ 1.61
CAC 40 Index	4,699.95	+ 1.56
DAX Index	6,612.15	+ 1.34
SMI Index	7,229.24	+ 1.20
DJIA Index	12,217.22	+ 0.49
NASDAQ 100 Index	2,265.87	+ 0.44
S&P 500 Index	1,323.53	+ 0.21

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	976.47	+ 0.32
Silver	19.88	+ 1.04
VIX	25.82	- 2.04
Crude wti	107.59	- 1.06
USD Index	72.55	- 0.98

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

Monthly Budget Statement (Feb)	-$170.0bn	-$120.0bn	UK / 18.00
Retail Sales (Jan) m/m	0.3%	0.1%	NZ / 21.45
Retail Sales ex auto (Jan) m/m	0.1%	0.3%	NZ / 21.45

Currency Tech

USDJPY
R 3: 110.10 T
R 2: 108.00 K
R 1: 105.00 S
CURRENT 102.65
S 1: 101.68 S
S 2: 101.42 M
S 3: 101.22 T

GBPUSD
R 3: 2.0577 T
R 2: 2.0447 S
R 1: 2.0140 M
CURRENT 2.0186
S 1: 2.0100 K
S 2: 2.0000 P
S 3: 1.9630 K

EURUSD
R 3: 1.5600 T
R 2: 1.5495 S
R 1: 1.5462 M
CURRENT 1.5466
S 1: 1.5283 M
S 2: 1.5000 K
S 3: 1.4500 P

S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

Market Brief

Usd continued to come under pressure in European session as Euro zone industrial production posted a strong numbers. The EurUsd spiked briefly above the 1.5500 figure before reversing slightly. Usd sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish and we expect the Eur to retest the 1.5500 near term. Euro-zone industrial production (jan) rose 0.9% and suggests that the continent is holding up well considering the slowing global growth backdrop. In addition French CPI held at 3.2% in feb showing no sign that price pressure are in decline.

The Usd strength created by the USD200bn Fed liquidity push was short lived. However stock markets rally continued unabated.

Switzerland's Mar ZEW, dropped to -71.7 from -55.6 in February. We don’t expect that this figure will have a major impact on the CHF since risk sentiment will continue to be a greater driver. For tomorrow SNB meeting we expect the central bank to hold rates steady. Risks to the Swiss economy are balanced between price stability and uncertainly surrounding the domestic growth.

Asian Session - Asian Stocks Follows US Rally

March 12, 2008 3:45 PM CET

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	AUD	0.43
	NOK	0.39
	SEK	0.35
	CAD	0.34
	GBP	0.26
	DKK	0.27
	EUR	0.25
	CHF	0.17
	JPY	0.02
	NZD	-0.02

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

Nikkei 225 Index	12,861.13	+ 1.60
Hang Seng Index	23,320.43	+ 1.41
Shanghai Index	4,070.12	- 2.29
FTSE futures	5,689.00	+ 1.16
DAX futures	6,615.00	+ 1.03
SMI Futures	7,136.00	+ 0.90
DJIA futures	12,186.00	- 0.03

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	971.20	- 0.21
Silver	19.45	- 1.14
VIX	26.36	- 10.27
Crude wti	108.45	- 0.27
USD Index	73.00	- 0.37

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

Trade in Goods and Services Balance (Jan)	-£4.6bn	-£4.7bn	UK / 9.30
Trade in Goods Balance (Jan)	-£7.5bn	-£7.6bn	UK / 9.30
Industrial Production (Jan) s.a.	+0.4%(+2.6	-0.2%(+1.3	EZ / 10.00
ZEW Survey (Mar)	--	55.6	SZ / 10.00
MBA Mortage Applications (Mar 7)	0.3%	3.0%	US / 11.00
Budget	--	--	UK / 12.30
Monthly Budget Statement (Feb)	-$170.0bn	-$120.0bn	US / 18.00
Retail Sales (Jan) m/m	0.3%	0.1%	NZ / 21.45

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9421
R 2: 0.9385
R 1: 0.9333
CURRENT: 0.9308
S 1: 0.9147
S 2: 0.9122
S 3: 0.9006

EURJPY
R 3: 161.41
R 2: 159.22
R 1: 158.94
CURRENT: 158.45
S 1: 155.59
S 2: 154.88
S 3: 154.07

USDSGD
R 3: 1.4152
R 2: 1.4063
R 1: 1.3983
CURRENT: 1.3873
S 1: 1.3827
S 2: 1.3800
S 3: 1.3696

Market Brief

Usd was slightly weaker in Asian session as markets opened with a renewed sense of optimism. The Fed’s coordinated (5 central banks) liquidity measure made available through a Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) was just the latest innovation in monetary policy from what is turning out to be a very unorthodox administration. The initiative was well received by US market with the Dow surging 3.5% and the Usd gaining across the board. In addition this operation was good for riskier assets such as Aud and Nzd and select EM pairs. However the euphoria didn’t last for the Usd as the greenback came under renewed selling pressure as the Asian day progressed. Markets were quick to recognize that the Fed’s move would provide only temporary support giving financial institutions a little maneuverability preventing any potential fire sale which could disrupt credit markets.

The Fed will definitely come under criticism for this unconventional move specifically being blamed for adding to inflationary pressures. Jim Rogers in CNBC this morning voiced his dissatisfaction saying he would rather have the ECB running the US monetary policy than the Fed. these were very strong words indeed.

We continue to see weakness in Usd and expect Jpy and Chf to outperform in the near term due to unresolved fundamentals that in turn are driving riskier asset prices.

Japan had an interesting morning. GDP annualized surge past market expectations to 3.5% vs. 2.3% exp while q/q rose 0.9% vs. 0.6% exp. Consumer confidence slipped slightly to 36.4 vs. 37.7 exp. However the focus was on the political wrangling surrounding the nomination of the new BoJ governor. As more or less expected the opposition DPJ has rejected Toshiro Muto as BoJ governor and Takatoshi Ito as deputy governor but has accepted Masaaki Shirakawa as one of the deputy governors. At this juncture it is clear that Fukui’s set will not be filled by March 19th. The government can not either resubmit Muto's name or find a new candidate. Given the present obstacles that the Japanese economy is facing it's very unfortunate that the BoJ lacks a strong governor to steer the monetary policy. However, given that the Jpy is not trading on underlying fundamentals but on larger macro themes, one can expect nontheless to see some support for the yen.

Today’s key release is the euro-zone industrial production. The recent stabilization of the industrial surveys, specifically the PMIs, suggest that the sector is prepared for a good start to the year. Should the data prove to be positive we should see a Eur rally.

10.45gmt - ECB's Trichet and Bundesbank's Weber speak
17.30gmt - ECB's Stark speaks

ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.