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European Session - Europe Indicators are Holding Up
March 10, 2008 4:25 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NOK | 0.58 |  | | | JPY | 0.39 | | | | CHF | 0.36 | | | | SEK | 0.27 | | | | GBP | 0.14 | | | | EUR | 0.11 | | | | DKK | 0.06 | |  | CAD | -0.11 | | | NZD | -0.77 | | | AUD | -1.29 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE 100 Index | 5,687.00 | - 0.11 | | CAC 40 Index | 4,618.50 | - 0.07 | | DAX Index | 6,518.58 | + 0.07 | | SMI Index | 7,105.07 | - 0.96 | | DJIA Index | 11,907.00 | + 0.09 | | S&P 500 Index | 1,292.81 | - 0.04 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 2,210.52 | - 0.08 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 969.45 | - 0.38 | | Silver | 19.58 | - 2.87 | | VIX | 27.95 | + 1.67 | | Crude wti | 106.73 | + 1.49 | | USD Index | 72.98 | - 0.06 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Release Scheduled | -- | -- | -- |
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Currency Tech |
USDJPY
R 3: 110.10 T
R 2: 108.00 K
R 1: 105.00 S
CURRENT 102.29
S 1: 101.68 S
S 2: 101.42 M
S 3: 101.22 T
GBPUSD
R 3: 2.0577 T
R 2: 2.0447 S
R 1: 2.0140 M
CURRENT 2.0167
S 1: 2.0100 K
S 2: 2.0000 P
S 3: 1.9630 K
EURUSD
R 3: 1.5600 T
R 2: 1.5500 M
R 1: 1.5396 S
CURRENT 1.5360
S 1: 1.5280 M
S 2: 1.5000 K
S 3: 1.4500 P
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
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Market Brief |
FX trading was subdued in European Session as the lack of new drivers kept position building on hold. Baring a quick unsustained move downward EurUsd stayed within 1.5330 - 1.5370 range.
The latest news on industrial external sectors of the Euro zone suggests despite the background of global weakening the region is holding up well. German trade surplus (jan) rose to 16.1bn from 15.8bn while in the French industrial sector production rose by a better-than-expected 0.5% m/m in Jan.
The global equity markets outlook worsened further, in the Asian session as the Nikkei broke to new 2008 lows and in European session FTSE dropped -1.15%. In this risk-averse environment the CHF and JPY should stay supportive. 9 -year range lows in UsdJpy at 102.20 are being tested and the psychologically significant 100.00 is within distance. Should the pressure on the equity market continue, led by the S&P breaking 1270 barrier, it may prove to be a catalyst in driving UsdJpy lower. In addition the EurJpy is setting up for a test of 7 year support.
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Asian Session - China Trade Surplus Falls
March 10, 2008 9:48 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.70 | | | | CHF | 0.44 | | | | SEK | 0.35 | | | | DKK | 0.26 | | | | EUR | 0.26 | | | | GBP | 0.22 | | | | CAD | 0.20 | | | | NOK | 0.20 | | | NZD | -0.47 | | | AUD | -0.65 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 12,523.13 | - 1.96 | | Hang Seng Index | 22,631.63 | + 0.57 | | Shanghai Index | 4,146.30 | - 3.58 | | FTSE futures | 5,687.00 | - 1.30 | | CAC futures | 4,598.00 | - 0.51 | | SMI Futures | 7,175.00 | - 1.18 | | DJIA futures | 11,883.00 | - 0.06 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 976.74 | + 0.36 | | Silver | 20.27 | + 0.57 | | VIX | 27.49 | - 0.21 | | Crude wti | 105.24 | + 0.08 | | USD Index | 72.80 | - 0.30 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Producer Prices (Feb) Input | +1.5%(+18. | +2.6%(+18. | UK / 9.30 | | Producer Prices (Feb) Output | +0.6%(+6.0 | +1.0%(+5.7 | UK / 9.30 | | Producer Prices (Feb) Core | +0.4%(+3.2 | 0.8%(+3.2% | UK / 9.30 | | Manufacturing Output (Jan) | 0.0%(+0.1% | -0.2%(0.0% | UK / 9.30 | | Industrial Production (Jan) | 0.1%(+0.5% | -0.1%(+0.6 | UK / 9.30 | | Housing Starts (Feb) | 205.0k | 222.7K | CA / 12.15 | | Wholesale Inventories (Jan) | 0.5% | 1.1% | US / 14.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9555
R 2: 0.9499
R 1: 0.9421
CURRENT: 0.9251
S 1: 0.9219
S 2: 0.9122
S 3: 0.9006
EURJPY
R 3: 161.04
R 2: 160.19
R 1: 159.22
CURRENT: 156.91
S 1: 155.95
S 2: 154.88
S 3: 154.07
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4152
R 2: 1.4063
R 1: 1.3983
CURRENT: 1.3891
S 1: 1.3818
S 2: 1.3800
S 3: 1.3696
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Market Brief |
Usd was relatively stable in Asian session with some slight gaps at the open. Given last weeks moves in FX and commodities, a quite and orderly open was welcome. Last week's soft payroll data confirmed the US recession is underway. Historically we have seen that when an economy stalls events spiral downwards very quickly. The 101k decline in payroll last month indicates that the US is past the breaking point. We expect therefore economist to revise their GDP & interest rate forecast downwards. These sudden revisions mean that some of the economic weakness is not priced in. This in turn should support the euro and we believe thereby that the Eurusd will continue its move toward 1.55 in the near term.
The major news this morning was the sharp decline China's trade surplus (feb) to US$8.6bn vs. US$22.5bn exp. This data was probably skewed by Chinese New Year and the massive snow storms, which basically halted internal movement of goods. However this might possibility be the first signal that decoupling theory may yet be nullified.
Japans core machinery orders (jan) released with a bang, jumping by 19.6% m/m, against expect. of 2.6% m/m. The y/y figure also rose by 11.4% y/y, the quickest increase since 2006. However, the surge was based on particularly large order for a few select items. In particular, orders for electric generators, iron and steel were up massively. So it is important we don’t read too deeply into this indicator alone.
In the UK Industrial production (jan) and PPI (feb) will dominate the calendar. These two figures will highlight the BoE worrying position. While slowing economic actively is well evident strong pipeline price pressure will keep aggressive rate slashing on hold for now.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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