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US Session: Dollar Loses Ground Against the Majors as Stocks and Commodities Rally
December 08, 2008 6:20 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Sek | 3.21 |  | | | Aud | 2.43 | | | | Nok | 2.07 | | | | Cad | 1.79 | | | | Nzd | 1.74 | | | | Eur | 1.31 | | | | Dkk | 1.31 | | | | Gbp | 1.14 | | | | Chf | 0.99 | |  | Jpy | -0.30 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA futures | 8,825.00 | + 2.47 | | S&P future | 899.60 | + 3.12 | | Nasdaq futures | 1,204.25 | + 2.23 | | FTSE futures | 4,271.50 | + 6.15 | | CAC futures | 3,199.50 | + 6.94 | | DAX futures | 4,686.50 | + 7.30 | | SMI Futures | 5,779.00 | + 4.31 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 43.64 | + 6.89 | | Gold | 779.24 | + 3.01 | | Silver | 10.20 | + 7.03 | | USD Index | 85.85 | - 1.46 | | VIX | 59.93 | - 5.83 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6696
R 2: 0.6617
R 1: 0.6537
CURRENT: 0.6620
S 1: 0.6294
S 2: 0.6232
S 3: 0.6077
EURJPY
R 3: 126.21
R 2: 124.61
R 1: 121.48
CURRENT: 119.20
S 1: 115.90
S 2: 114.41
S 3: 113.64
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5529
R 2. 1.5436
R 1: 1.5345
CURRENT: 1.5298
S 1: 1.5109
S 2: 1.5052
S 3: 1.4998
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Market Brief |
The dollar dropped against most of the majors on rising risk appetite and optimism surrounding the Obama stimulus pan. The EurUsd rose 164pips to the high 1.28 price area, while the UsdJpy rose 25pips to the low 93 level. The GbpUsd gained 170pips to the mid range of 1.48 which is consistent with the recent trend of risk aversion dictating movement in financial markets. The equity markets rallied in the US and Europe with the Dow up nearly 3% or 256pts and the SPX also higher by 3% or 26pts. Bond started to selloff providing a little bit of relief to tight treasury yields, 2yr stands at .93% and 10yr at 2.7%. Commodities rallied with oil up 7.3% at $43bbl and gold higher by 2% at $771oz.
ECB member Ewald Noworthy stated that bank is in a “wait and see mode and won’t necessarily cut interest rates again next month.” Clearly policymakers are concerned that the easing rates will lose is effect, and therefore need to moderate the method and pace by which they intervene to spark growth. German Zew is scheduled to be released to tomorrow, Analyst are looking for a lower reading than last month further cementing the severity of the economic situation in the region. There was no data out the UK today, but the sterling posed a strong move to the upside in line with its peers as stocks and commodities gained.
The dollar weakened today following Obama’s announcement of a stimulus plan to rebuild the country’s infrastructure, providing much needed jobs in the US. The govt. is also expected to bailout the auto sector with $15B in bridge loans versus the $34B requested. The euphoria may be temporary being that economic outlook remains very pessimistic for the US and its peers throughout the G7. It will take time for the stimulus plan, and actions taken within the housing market to have a substantial effect on the financial markets.
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Asian Session - Usd Under Pressure as Risk Appetite Returns
December 08, 2008 9:23 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | AUD | 5.38 | | | | SEK | 4.28 | | | | NZD | 3.74 | | | | CAD | 3.16 | | | | NOK | 3.10 | | | | GBP | 2.59 | | | | DKK | 1.80 | | | | EUR | 1.80 | | | | CHF | 1.05 | | | JPY | -1.23 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,329.05 | + 5.18 | | Hang Seng Index | 14,836.40 | + 7.15 | | Shanghai Index | 2,090.77 | + 3.50 | | FTSE futures | 4,024.00 | - 3.50 | | DAX futures | 4,671.00 | + 6.90 | | SMI Futures | 5,828.00 | + 5.10 | | DJIA futures | 8,790.00 | + 2.06 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 769.70 | + 1.75 | | Silver | 9.72 | + 1.94 | | VIX | 59.93 | - 5.83 | | Crude wti | 42.87 | + 5.04 | | USD Index | 86.29 | - 0.95 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Producer Prices (Nov) Input | -2.6%,+6.9 | -5.6%,+13. | UK / 8.30 | | Producer Prices (Nov) Output | -0.5%,+5.6 | -1.0%,+6.8 | UK / 8.30 | | Producer Prices (Nov) Core | -0.4%,+4.5 | -0.5%,+4.9 | UK / 8.30 | | Industrial Production (Oct) | -1.8%,-2.7 | -3.6%,-2.1 | GE / 10.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6696
R 2: 0.6617
R 1: 0.6537
CURRENT: 0.6620
S 1: 0.6294
S 2: 0.6232
S 3: 0.6077
EURJPY
R 3: 126.21
R 2: 124.61
R 1: 121.48
CURRENT: 119.20
S 1: 115.90
S 2: 114.41
S 3: 113.64
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5529
R 2. 1.5436
R 1: 1.5345
CURRENT: 1.5298
S 1: 1.5109
S 2: 1.5052
S 3: 1.4998
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Market Brief |
The Usd was weaker in the Asian session, as risk appetite rallied in late Friday trading and has carried over into the new week. In Friday's activity, US stocks were able to shrug off the soft payroll data (Nov. NFP declined by -533k) and yet closed higher, while 2-year Treasury yields fell after the payrolls data, but then raised roughly 13bp by end-session. In the Asian session, the EurUsd quick turned higher from 1.2650 to 1.2850, while UsdJpy was range bound, trading between 92.57 and 93.17. Jpy fueled carry trades continued to perform, with AudJpy pushing through the 60.81 resistance to 61.50 and the EurJpy now trading at 119.320, with good momentum. Asian regional indexes are all trading higher, with the Nikkei up 5.19%. European stock futures are now poised to open higher, as the positive sentiment seems to be creeping back into trading. Commodities have also benefited from the change in risk appetite with wti crude up 5.04% and spot gold 1.75%. While we expect Usd funding shortage and deleverging trade to benefit the Usd, we see the greenback's upside as restricted as stability slowly enters the financial markets.
In the European session, the markets will be watching the UK's producer Prices and German Industrial production. UK's producer prices are expected to plunge, adding to growing concerns that the UK is heading for deflation. In German industrial production, given the past industrial surveys, we are expecting a second consecutive fall in output.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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