Daily Forex Snapshots

US Session: Non-Farm Payrolls Do Little to Move Markets, Dollar Declines After Early Rally

December 05, 2008 10:38 PM CET

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	Cad	0.59
	Gbp	0.49
	Aud	0.45
	Nzd	0.30
	Eur	-0.43
	Dkk	-0.49
	Jpy	-0.68
	Sek	-0.97
	Nok	-1.21
	Chf	-2.06

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

DJIA futures	8,618.00	+ 2.57
S&P future	872.50	+ 2.95
Nasdaq futures	1,177.00	+ 3.70
FTSE futures	4,024.00	- 3.50
CAC futures	2,992.00	- 5.29
DAX futures	4,367.50	- 4.91
SMI Futures	5,540.00	- 1.86

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Crude wti	41.90	- 4.05
Gold	755.43	- 1.51
Silver	9.50	+ 0.05
USD Index	87.12	+ 0.78
VIX	59.93	- 5.83

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

No Major Events Scheduled

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6696
R 2: 0.6618
R 1: 0.6544
CURRENT: 0.6465
S 1: 0.6333
S 2: 0.6232
S 3: 0.6077

EURJPY
R 3: 123.67
R 2: 121.54
R 1: 119.45
CURRENT: 117.69
S 1: 116.43
S 2: 114.41
S 3: 113.64

USDSGD
R 3: 1.5529
R 2: 1.5436
R 1: 1.5345
CURRENT: 1.5180
S 1: 1.5161
S 2: 1.5109
S 3: 1.5052

Market Brief

The dollar was mixed against the majors, as the early part of the trading session was preoccupied with economic data. The EurUsd fell 80pips to trading through 1.27, while the UsdJpy gained 90pips to the low 93 price area. The GbpUsd rose a little over 30pips to the low 1.47 level, after a volatile start being down as much as 100pips in intraday trading. Equities finished strong in the US with the Dow up 259pts on the Dow, while European stock indexes closed lower with the CAC down over 5% or 173pts. Bonds sold off late pushing yields as much 15bps higher on the 10yr treasury. Commodities extended losses as oil fell 5% to $41bbl, and gold down 1.25% to $757oz.

German factory orders came in drastically lower than expected at ‐6.1% vs. ‐0.5%, further cementing the weak economic environment in the Eurozone. This data follows the ECB’s rate cut of 75bps, bringing the benchmark rate to 2.5%. Investors will be watching GDP forecast closely to gauge the degree of further downside. ECB President Trichet noted that he is conscious of the danger of running out of policy tools, and purchasing assets directly from investors to boost the economy is becoming a greater possibility. There was limited news out of the UK, with the exception of a report by large bank stating the sterling may have hit a bottom, expecting the currency to recover in 2009.

In the US, the unemployment rate increased to 6.7% vs. 6.8% exp. Even though the reading was better than expected it still serves as further evidence of an economic recession. Non‐farm payrolls fell substantially lower to ‐533k vs. ‐335k, creating a level of support for the Senate committee to reconsider bailing out the auto industry. The unemployment numbers clearly would have been even worse, if the auto makers were allowed to fail. The dollar surged in following the economic news, but lost ground when equities rallied.

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Asian Session: Asian Stocks rise on further commodity weakness – markets eye NFP’s today.

December 05, 2008 10:10 AM CET

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	JPY	0.4405
	CHF	0.0292
	EUR	-0.0156
	DKK	-0.0186
	NOK	-0.1633
	AUD	-0.2391
	SEK	-0.2530
	NZD	-0.2802
	GBP	-0.4338
	CAD	-0.9681

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

Nikkei 225 Index	7917.51	- 0.09
Hang Seng Index	13781.22	+ 2.01
Shanghai Index	2018.66	+ 0.86
FTSE futures	4140	- 0.15
DAX futures	4535	- 1.83
DJIA futures	8410	+ 0.37
Nasdaq futures	1137.25	- 1.81

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	770.55	+ 0.46
Silver	9.542	+ 0.50
VIX	63.64	+ 4.81
Crude wti	43.82	+ 0.34
USD Index	86.625	+ 0.21

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

US Non Farm Payrolls	-325K	-240K	US / 13:30
US Unemployment Rate	6.8%	6.5%	US / 13:30

Currency Tech

Market Brief

U.S stock markets declined in the closing hours of trading yesterday as continued uncertainty over the “Big-Three” looms over the U.S economy. The Dow ended the day -2.5% while the S&P and NASDAQ ended the day down by 3%. The EURUSD traded a relatively tight 40pip range – between 1.2730 and 1.2770 during Asian trading, markets awaiting this afternoon’s Non-Farm Payrolls as stimulus. Yesterday saw the dollar weaken as the world watched the once mighty U.S automotive industry plead Congress for help – a rescue package that has gone from $25Bn to $34Bn in the two weeks the Big three have convened to prepare detailed Business plans and financial statements.

The Yen continues to be headstrong, advancing against all currencies, low interest rates and unwinding of carry trades continues to drive the Nippon currency to new heights. The currency is now flirting with 91 support line, a level not seen in 13 years. The Aussie and Kiwi had a volatile day yesterday, initially rising against the dollar but eventually capitulating as demand for the currency weakened as policy makers in Australia, New Zealand lowered their benchmark rates – along with the ECB, BoE and Riksbank.

The spotlight is on the NFP’s today as a median forecast of 73 economists predicts a 333’000 decline, only a month after an already impressive 240’000 decline last month. The NFP’s and unemployment rate are due out at 13:30 GMT – volatility could to be expected if the number is even worse than expected, if confirmed the decline would bring unemployment to 6.8% - the highest level in 15 Years.

Crude prices are on all the news wires, the slowing global economy has dampened demand sending crude to a 4 year low of $43.36/bbl. Many analysts believe the state of the global economy and the awareness brought on by the exceptionally high oil prices only a few months ago will continue to weaken demand for the commodity – eyes on $40/bbl in the near term and $25/bbl for the real believers.

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