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US Session: Beige Book Confirms Economic Slowdown Dollar Holds Strong as Safe haven Currency
December 03, 2008 10:08 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Jpy | 0.32 |  | | | Aud | 0.09 | |  | Sek | -0.18 | | | Nzd | -0.31 | | | Eur | -0.41 | | | Dkk | -0.43 | | | Chf | -0.48 | | | Cad | -1.02 | | | Nok | -1.26 | | | Gbp | -1.31 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA futures | 8,310.00 | - 1.45 | | S&P future | 837.50 | - 1.36 | | Nasdaq futures | 1,123.00 | - 0.88 | | FTSE futures | 4,104.00 | - 0.35 | | CAC futures | 3,116.50 | - 1.27 | | DAX futures | 4,494.50 | - 1.44 | | SMI Futures | 5,607.00 | + 1.30 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 46.77 | - 0.41 | | Gold | 769.75 | - 1.61 | | Silver | 9.58 | + 0.03 | | USD Index | 86.98 | + 0.32 | | VIX | 63.81 | + 1.32 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6696
R 2: 0.6618
R 1: 0.6544
CURRENT: 0.6437
S 1: 0.6333
S 2: 0.6232
S 3: 0.6077
EURJPY
R 3: 123.67
R 2: 121.54
R 1: 119.45
CURRENT: 118.32
S 1: 116.43
S 2: 114.41
S 3: 113.64
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5529
R 2: 1.5436
R 1: 1.5345
CURRENT: 1.5282
S 1: 1.5265
S 2: 1.5109
S 3: 1.5052
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Market Brief |
The dollar is slightly higher against the majors in intraday trading, ahead of three major rate decisions this week. The EurUsd fell 45pips through 1.27 to the high range of 1.26, while the UsdJpy is marginally lower at low 93 price area. The GbpUsd declined nearly 180pips to the mid 1.47 level, behind weak economic data released in the UK. Bond yields were mostly flat with the 2yr, 10yr, and 30yr all higher by 1bp. Commodities are weaker across the board, with oil at $46bbl, and gold at $773oz as risk appetite wanes across asset classes.
Eurozone PMI came in lower than expected at 42.5 vs. 43.3, which is consistent with the trend of slowing global growth. In addition, Eurozone retail sales declined 0.8% vs. the projected drop of 0.4%. European stock indexes reflected the negative economic news, and the rate decision by the ECB should be in line with market consensus of 75bps. In the UK, PMI services were also weaker than estimated at 40.1 vs. 41.2, which is the lowest level in 12 years. Consumer confidence dropped to 50, which is definitely evidentiary of a deepening recession. We should expect a deep cut by the BOE of 100bps to 2.00%, however the Sterling has underwent a strong selloff. FX Traders will be watching the rate decisions this week, as well as the Non-Farm payroll numbers scheduled to be released this Friday. The dollar should remain resilient through Friday, as the currency remains a safe haven option for investors.
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Asian Session - Equities Rally Back
December 03, 2008 12:25 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.36 | | | | AUD | 0.08 | | | CHF | -0.15 | | | EUR | -0.16 | | | DKK | -0.18 | | | GBP | -0.21 | | | NZD | -0.35 | | | CAD | -0.39 | | | SEK | -0.42 | | | NOK | -0.56 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,004.10 | + 1.78 | | Hang Seng Index | 13,594.41 | + 1.40 | | Shanghai Index | 1,955.78 | + 3.50 | | FTSE futures | 4,118.50 | + 1.90 | | DAX futures | 4,560.00 | + 4.21 | | SMI Futures | 5,535.00 | + 0.09 | | DJIA futures | 8,376.00 | - 0.66 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 780.15 | - 0.28 | | Silver | 9.51 | - 0.73 | | VIX | 62.98 | - 8.07 | | Crude wti | 47.69 | + 1.55 | | USD Index | 86.58 | - 0.41 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Nov) | 41.2 | 42.4 | UK / 8.30 | | Retail Sales (Oct) | -0.4%,-1.5 | +0.1%,-1.2 | EZ / 9.00 | | BRC Shop Price Index (Nov) | -- | +3.0% | UK / 9.30 | | ADP Change in Employment (Nov) | -200k | -159k | US / 12.15 | | Non-Farm Productivity (Q3 2nd Est.) (q/q Ann.) | +0.9% | +1.1%p | US / 12.30 | | Unit Labour Costs (Q3 2nd Est.) (q/q Ann.) | +3.6% | +3.6%p | US / 12.30 | | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Nov) | 42.0 | 44.4 | US / 14.00 | | SNB’s Roth speaks on financial turmoil | -- | -- | SZ / 15.00 | | Fed’s Beige Book | -- | -- | US / 18.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6696
R 2: 0.6618
R 1: 0.6544
CURRENT: 0.6437
S 1: 0.6333
S 2: 0.6232
S 3: 0.6077
EURJPY
R 3: 123.67
R 2: 121.54
R 1: 119.45
CURRENT: 118.32
S 1: 116.43
S 2: 114.41
S 3: 113.64
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5529
R 2: 1.5436
R 1: 1.5345
CURRENT: 1.5282
S 1: 1.5265
S 2: 1.5109
S 3: 1.5052
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Market Brief |
The Usd was range bound after a bout of weakness in Asian session as equities rallied back from Mondays decline. EurUsd traded around 1.2742 and 1.2667, while USDJPY traded in a 92.96 to 93.68 range. Market are still keenly focused on stock markets as the S&P rose 3.99% yesterday and Asian regional indexes are currently in positive territory. Giving markets a boost was Nancy Pelosi (Speaker of the House) comment regarding a bailout package for US Automates saying that bankruptcy is "not an option.” Commodities are currently mixed with crude slightly stronger but gold has failed to rally on the back of renewed risk appetite and increased optimism. VIX continues to quietly trend upwards now trading at 62.98.
The BoJ concluded their emergency policy meeting yesterday, and as widely expected, the central bank said it would expand the range of corporate debt as eligible collateral. Despite much speculation monetary policy was not discussed and rates were held at 0.30%.
In European trading markets will be watching euro-zone retail sales and UK CIPS/Markit report (before the much anticipated US labor figures). Data from the euro zone has continued to deteriorate at a rapid pace and today figures are expected to show that sales volumes have continue to decline. And in the UK business activity index of the CIPS/Markit report on services is expected to collapse to 42.4 in Oct. This figure remain consistent with a deep economic recession and a strong rational for the MPC to cut rates by 150bp last month.
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