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Asian Session – All Eyes on the FOMC
December 16, 2008 9:57 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | SEK | 0.65 |  | | | NZD | 0.49 | | | | CAD | 0.44 | | | | JPY | 0.40 | | | | CHF | 0.22 | |  | EUR | -0.01 | | | DKK | -0.02 | | | AUD | -0.18 | | | GBP | -0.50 | | | NOK | -0.55 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,568.02 | - 1.11 | | Hang Seng Index | 15,130.21 | + 0.55 | | Shanghai Index | 1,975.01 | + 0.54 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,262.25 | - 0.35 | | DAX Index | 4,674.34 | + 0.41 | | SMI Index | 5,526.36 | - 0.01 | | DJIA futures | 8,592.00 | - 0.13 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 833.82 | - 0.52 | | Silver | 10.57 | - 1.03 | | VIX | 56.76 | + 4.56 | | Crude wti | 45.30 | + 1.77 | | USD Index | 82.09 | - 0.21 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| ‘Flash’ manufacturing PMI, index | 34.5 | 35.7 | GE / 8.30 | | ‘Flash’ services PMI, index | 44.0 | 45.1 | GE / 8.30 | | Flash’ manufacturing PMI, index | 34.3 | 35.6 | EZ / 9.00 | | Flash’ services PMI, index | 41.2 | 42.5 | EZ / 9.00 | | Flash’ composite PMI, index | 37.8 | 38.9 | EZ / 9.00 | | CPI, % m/m | -0.3 ,3.9Y | -0.2 ,4.5Y | UK / 9.30 | | CPI ex food, energy, alcohol & tobacco, % m/m | 0.0,1.8 | 0.0,1.9 y | UK / 9.30 | | RPI, % m/m | -1.2 ,1.5 | -0.3 ,4.2 | UK / 9.30 | | CPI, % m/m | -1.2 ,1.5 | -1.0 ,3.7 | US / 13.30 | | Core CPI, % m/m | 0.1 ,2.1 | -0.1 ,2.2 | US / 13.30 | | NSA CPI, index | -- | 216.6 | US / 13.30 | | Housing starts, mn units saar | 0.730 | 0.791 | US / 13.30 | | Building permits, mn units saar | 0.700 | 0.730 | US / 13.30 | | FOMC interest rate announcement, % | 0.50% | 1.00% | US / 19.15 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7015
R 2: 0.6986
R 1: 0.6801
CURRENT: 0.6684
S 1: 0.6490
S 2: 0.6453
S 3: 0.6294
EURJPY
R 3: 128.44
R 2: 126.24
R 1: 124.63
CURRENT: 123.34
S 1: 121.67
S 2: 117.54
S 3: 115.90
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5011
R 2: 1.4972
R 1: 1.4777
CURRENT: 1.4754
S 1: 1.4682
S 2: 1.4647
S 3: 1.4579
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Market Brief |
The Usd continued to give up ground in the Asian session, ahead of today's FOMC rate announcement. The EurUsd traded up to 1.3737 from 1.3642, while the UsdJpy traded down to 90.15 from 90.80. Wall Street closed slightly lower on light volumes and Asian equity markets are quiet. Rhetoric from OPEC is having only minor effect on energy prices. OPEC's Secretary General El-Badri commented that a sizeable production cut is needed at Wednesday's meeting. Meanwhile, OPEC's President Khelil said $75 oil is palatable and is convinced that Russia will join in OPEC’s production cuts.
In Australia, the RBA released the December minutes, when the bank delivered a 100bp rate cut to 4.25%. Comments suggested that the rate cuts moved monetary policy into a clearly expansionary position and would support demand. Markets expected a cut in February and March down to 3.00%.
The event of the day will be the FOMC rate decision this afternoon. Markets are expecting 75bp cut according to Fed Funds futures, down to 0.25% (yet bloomberg concensus is for 50bp cut). Those participants who are expecting language which will help guide expectations on the Fed unorthodox monetary policy will most probably be disappointed. Overall, we expect the accompanying statement to strengthen its language on the US economy and highlight the fact that the Fed is willing to do whatever it takes.
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