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US Session: Equities are Looking at Negative Session as Traders Scale Back Risk Ahead of Rate Cuts
December 01, 2008 4:37 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Jpy | 1.70 |  | | | Chf | 0.30 | |  | Cad | -0.29 | | | Eur | -0.51 | | | Dkk | -1.10 | | | Nok | -1.11 | | | Aud | -2.12 | | | Sek | -2.49 | | | Nzd | -2.66 | | | Gbp | -3.28 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 8,453.10 | - 4.26 | | S&P 500 Index | 852.70 | - 4.86 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,465.84 | - 4.54 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,123.18 | - 3.84 | | CAC 40 Index | 3,132.85 | - 3.98 | | DAX Index | 4,448.80 | - 4.73 | | SMI Index | 5,589.35 | - 3.91 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 50.76 | - 6.74 | | Gold | 777.80 | - 4.92 | | Silver | 9.42 | - 8.59 | | USD Index | 86.99 | + 0.54 | | VIX | 62.48 | + 13.03 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks | NA | NA | 13:45/GMT |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6758
R 2: 0.6696
R 1: 0.6618
CURRENT: 0.6585
S 1: 0.6333
S 2: 0.6232
S 3: 0.6076
EURJPY
R 3: 131.04
R 2: 128.43
R 1: 126.21
CURRENT: 123.05
S 1: 122.07
S 2: 119.54
S 3: 116.44
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5436
R 2: 1.5345
R 1: 1.5191
CURRENT: 1.5070
S 1: 1.5055
S 2: 1.4965
S 3: 1.4875
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Market Brief |
The Dollar and yen hold their stature as safe haven currencies, as investors brace themselves for a selloff in the US trading session. The EurUsd fell 85 pips to the low range of 1.26, while the UsdJpy dropped 140pips finding support near 94. The GbpUsd collapsed 400pips pushing the pair through 1.50 currently trading with a 1.49 handle. Equities in the US declined with the Dow down 360pts or 4.0% and the S&P500 off 30pts or 3.6%. The US followed the trend of the European stock indexes which are also in the red, both the FTSE and the DAX down over 2.5% in intraday trading. Bond yields are moved to lower levels, with the 2yr compressed under 1% and 10yr below 3%. Commodities sold off across the spectrum with oil at $50bbl, and gold at $783oz, which is consistent of the overall trend risk aversion.
The market is watching central banks in Europe and Asia ahead of an eventful week of monetary policy decisions. German retail sales dropped more than expected at 1.6% vs. 0.3%, providing a deeper insight into the state of the consumer. In addition, German Manufacturing PMI was lower than projected at 35.6 vs. 36.2, supporting the need for the ECB to address waning growth by cutting rates later this week. In the UK, speculation that the BoE will slash rates 100bps sparked a massive selloff in the Sterling as Traders build positions ahead of the monetary policy meeting.
The US economic data showed further downside to the crisis, with the US ISM figure released at 36.2 vs. 37 exp. Construction spending was slightly lower than expected at ‐1.2% vs. 1.0%. Both Fed Chairman Bernanke and Dallas Fed President are scheduled to speak later this afternoon regarding Fed policy and the US economy. The Usd is likely to continue its trend of strength against other major currency pairs, we are monitoring the correlation between equities and FX to build an outlook for 2009.
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Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off‐exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
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Asian Session - Markets Position for an Uncertain Week
December 01, 2008 9:32 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.77 | | | | CHF | 0.22 | | | | SEK | 0.07 | | | EUR | -0.37 | | | DKK | -0.38 | | | CAD | -0.41 | | | NOK | -0.44 | | | GBP | -1.05 | | | AUD | -2.01 | | | NZD | -2.66 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,397.22 | - 1.35 | | Hang Seng Index | 14,160.10 | + 1.95 | | Shanghai Index | 1,894.62 | + 1.24 | | FTSE futures | 4,287.00 | + 0.83 | | DAX futures | 4,656.50 | - 0.27 | | SMI Futures | 5,790.00 | - 0.43 | | DJIA futures | 8,741.00 | - 0.90 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 807.45 | - 1.29 | | Silver | 10.14 | - 1.54 | | VIX | 55.28 | + 0.65 | | Crude wti | 52.72 | - 3.14 | | USD Index | 86.58 | + 0.06 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| BoE Mortgage Approvals (Oct) | 32k | 33k | UK / 8.30 | | Consumer Credit (Oct) | +£0.5bn | +£0.3bn | UK / 8.30 | | CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Nov) | 39.7 | 41.5 | UK / 8.30 | | GDP (Q3 1st Est.) (q/q Ann.) | +0.8% | +0.3% | CA / 12.30 | | Construction Spending (Oct) | -0.9% | -0.3% | US / 14.00 | | ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov) | 37.5 | 38.9 | US / 14.00 | | Fed’s Bernanke Speaks On Economic Outlook | -- | -- | US / 17.30 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6758
R 2. 0.6696
R 1: 0.6618
CURRENT: 0.6447
S 1: 0.6333
S 2: 0.6232
S 3. 0.6077
EURJPY
R 3: 126.24
R 2: 124.63
R 1: 123.67
CURRENT: 120.63
S 1: 119.55
S 2: 116.43
S 3: 113.64
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5436
R 2: 1.5345
R 1: 1.5248
CURRENT: 1.5212
S 1: 15052
S 2: 1.4965
S 3: 1.4875
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Market Brief |
The Usd was slightly stronger in the Asian session, as investors positioned themselves for a data heavy week. In the US, Black Friday's initial sales reports were unconvincing (but slightly on the positive side) and data released this week is expected to show continued deterioration. The EurUsd and UsdJpy came under significant selling pressure on Friday and the trend seems to be continuing in Asia. The EurUsd traded down from 1.2721 to 1.2622, while the UsdJpy traded from 95.60 to 95.18. Last week's equity trading was relatively postive and stable, while government yields declined. Asian regional equity indexes are mixed, while European stock futures are pointing to a lower opening. Interestingly, crude prices are lower despite the OPEC meeting, which didnʼt cut production but will wait till the end of month meeting, illustrating investors fears are directed at the weak demand caused by the global recession, above production/supply concerns.
This week, markets will be focused on the aggressive rate cuts from central banks. Our base scenario is that the cuts will give equities some level of support and, therefore, weaken Usd and Jpy. The big meetings will be Thursday's BoE and ECB policy rate decisions. We are expecting 100bp & 75bp respectively, which is slightly more aggressive than the current market expectations. Earlier in the week, we expect the RBA to cut 100bp and RBNZ a whopping 150bp rate cut. Both should take the market by surprise and weigh on the Aud and Nzd (less so for Aud).
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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