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Asia Session - Markets are Unconvinced By Central Bank Cuts
November 07, 2008 10:06 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NOK | 1.50 |  | | | SEK | 1.04 | | | | JPY | 0.68 | | | | EUR | 0.65 | | | | DKK | 0.56 | | | | CHF | 0.44 | |  | GBP | -0.43 | | | NZD | -0.48 | | | CAD | -0.60 | | | AUD | -0.82 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,583.00 | - 3.55 | | Hang Seng Index | 14,243.43 | + 2.38 | | Shanghai Index | 1,747.71 | + 1.74 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,342.78 | + 1.64 | | DAX Index | 4,856.98 | + 0.90 | | SMI Index | 6,022.52 | + 1.64 | | DJIA futures | 8,860.00 | + 1.83 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 741.43 | + 1.57 | | Silver | 10.28 | + 2.90 | | VIX | 63.68 | + 16.71 | | Crude wti | 62.02 | + 2.07 | | USD Index | 85.60 | - 0.30 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| ECB Publishes Bank Lending Survey (Q4) | -- | -- | EZ / 8.00 | | Industrial Production (Sep) | -1.7%,-0.5 | 3.4%,+1.7% | GE / 10.00 | | Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (Oct) | -200K | -159K | US / 12.30 | | Unemployment Rate (Oct) | 6.3% | 6.1% | US / 12.30 | | Average Hourly Earnings (Oct) | 0.2%,+3.5 | 0.2%,+3.4 | US / 12.30 | | Average Weekly Hours Worked (Oct) | 33.6 | 33.6 | US / 12.30 | | Pending Home Sales Index (Sep) | -3.0% | +7.4% | US / 15.00 | | Change in Consumer Credit (Sep) | $0.0bn | -$7.9bn | US / 19.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7357
R 2: 0.7240
R 1: 0.7065
CURRENT: 65.09
S 1: 0.6550
S 2: 0.6339
S 3: 0.6011
EURJPY
R 3: 131.50
R 2: 131.05
R 1: 127.07
CURRENT: 124.73
S 1: 122.25
S 2: 121.40
S 3: 113.65
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5160
R 2: 1.5147
R 1: 1.5079
CURRENT1.4936
S 1: 1.4645
S 2: 1.4585
S 3: 1.4555
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Market Brief |
The Usd was mixed in the Asian session, as equities markets continue to come under significant selling pressure. The EurUsd bounced around the 1.3100 – 1.2654 levels, while UsdJpy was relatively unchanged, trading between 98.03 and 96.80. Markets were unconvinced that the aggressive rate cuts by the SNB, BoE and ECB (50bp, 150bp, 50bp respectively) would have the desired effect in the near-term. However, we do expect that, ultimately, the trend of lower rates will have a positive impact on the global economy, clearly heading for a recession in 2009. The unprecedented move by the BoE by slashing 150bp to 3.00% was a signal that members view risks to inflation as low and risk to GDP as high. Wall Street took another fierce tumble yesterday, with S&P -5.02%, shaking any notion of an "Obama Bounce". Asian equity were undecidedly mixed on low volume and European indexes are trending lower. The correlation between equity markets / risk aversion and Usd is still well entrenched and will define todays trading pattern. Overall, redemption flow from risky assets into more liquid and safe US vehicles has benefited the greenback, and will continue as asset values maintain their downward decline.
Today's focus will be on the US October's employment data, which should provide the first real glimpse at how the trouble in the financial sector has spilt over into the real economy. Consensus for NFP is calling for a -200k reading (but analyst estimates vary greatly). However, with ADP reporting a higher than expected and surveys looking soft, risks are clearly skewed to the downside. In addition, unemployment is expected to rise to 6.4%, a 14-year high.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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