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US Session: Dollar Strength Dominates Majors Ahead of Presidential Election
November 04, 2008 1:15 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Cad | 2.68 |  | | | Nzd | 1.53 | | | | Aud | 1.29 | |  | Nok | -0.09 | | | Sek | -0.35 | | | Jpy | -0.69 | | | Eur | -0.73 | | | Dkk | -0.73 | | | Chf | -1.01 | | | Gbp | -1.67 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA futures | 9,332.00 | + 0.37 | | S&P 500 Index | 969.80 | + 0.24 | | Nasdaq futures | 1,341.75 | + 0.02 | | FTSE futures | 4,431.00 | + 1.20 | | CAC futures | 3,514.50 | + 1.30 | | SMI Futures | 6,245.00 | + 1.66 | | DAX futures | 5,037.50 | - 0.54 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 64.24 | - 5.27 | | Gold | 723.25 | - 0.18 | | Silver | 9.84 | - 0.15 | | USD Index | 86.35 | + 0.84 | | VIX | 53.68 | - 10.37 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7065
R 2: 0.6893
R 1: 0.6846
CURRENT: 0.6829
S 1: 0.6674
S 2: 0.6550
S 3: 0.6338
EURJPY
R 3: 131.49
R 2: 131.06
R 1: 127.83
CURRENT: 127.33
S 1: 125.42
S 2: 122.23
S 3: 121.40
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5039
R 2: 1.4948
R 1: 1.4834
CURRENT: 1.4682
S 1: 1.4660
S 2: 1.4585
S 3: 1.4554
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Market Brief |
Dollar strength surged in FX markets today with as investors anticipate the outcome of the US Presidential election tomorrow. The EurUsd slid 85 pips to the downside trading at the mid 1.26 level, while the UsdJpy rallied 70 pips to the low range of 99. The GbpUsd fell 321pips to the mid 1.57 price area as Traders await the rate decision by the BoE. Equity markets were flat in the US, which is standard before a major political event, we should probably see a strong reaction following tomorrow’s results.
European stock indexes saw a modest move to the upside, with the FTSE higher by 1.5% and the CAC higher by 1.17%. Bond yields were tighter in shorter duration securities like the 2yr, and a lighter drop in the latter end of the curve. Commodities were marginally higher with oil at $64bbl and gold at $726oz, neither of which are significant moves and we should be more conscious of price patterns in tomorrows’ session.
Eurozone PMI fell to 41.1 vs. 41.3 confirming the trend of slowing global growth, investors would need to see a level above 50 to infer that a recovery is on the horizon. This data was released ahead of the scheduled monetary policy meeting, in which the ECB is expected to cut rates 50bps. In the UK, manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 41.5, which is better than estimates, but with projections so low it really did not have positive impact on the sterling. The key focus will be the BoE monetary policy meeting, which is also scheduled for this week, where the central bank is expected to cut rates at least 50bps to 4.00%.
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Asian Session - Event Risks Dominate Week
November 03, 2008 9:07 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | AUD | 2.78 | | | | NZD | 1.79 | | | | NOK | 1.49 | | | | SEK | 1.16 | | | | GBP | 1.07 | | | | EUR | 0.85 | | | | DKK | 0.86 | | | | CHF | 0.36 | | | | CAD | 0.28 | | | JPY | -0.98 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,576.98 | - 5.01 | | Hang Seng Index | 14,291.84 | + 2.31 | | Shanghai Index | 1,719.77 | - 0.52 | | FTSE futures | 4,378.50 | + 2.50 | | DAX futures | 5,092.50 | + 0.54 | | SMI Futures | 6,153.21 | + 5.31 | | DJIA futures | 9,364.00 | + 0.79 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 735.13 | + 1.46 | | Silver | 10.05 | + 2.03 | | VIX | 59.89 | - 4.78 | | Crude wti | 67.78 | - 0.04 | | USD Index | 85.18 | - 0.52 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| PMI Manufacturing (Oct Final) | 41.3 | 41.3p | EZ / 9.00 | | CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Oct) | 40.1 | 41.0 | UK / 9.30 | | ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct) | 42.0 | 43.5 | US / 15.00 | | Construction Spending (Sep) | -0.8% | 0.0% | US / 15.00 | | King, Darling & Turner testify to Treas. Com. | -- | -- | UK / 16.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7065
R 2: 0.6893
R 1: 0.6846
CURRENT: 0.6829
S 1: 0.6674
S 2: 0.6550
S 3: 0.6338
EURJPY
R 3: 131.49
R 2: 131.06
R 1: 127.83
CURRENT: 127.33
S 1: 125.42
S 2: 122.23
S 3: 121.40
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5039
R 2: 1.4948
R 1: 1.4834
CURRENT: 1.4682
S 1: 1.4660
S 2: 1.4585
S 3: 1.4554
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Market Brief |
The Usd was mixed in the Asian session, as markets brace themselves for what could become a very interesting trading week. With the US Presidential election, RBA, BoE and ECB all scheduled to meet in the coming days, the potential event risk is high. The EurUsd traded higher to 1.2898 from 1.2734, while the UsdJpy traded up to 99.65 from 98.23. Carry trades got a boost, since risk aversion eased as equities rallied. The EurJpy traded to 1.28.44, while the AudJpy traded up to 68.34. Even the Emerging Markets continued to stage a decent rally in recent days. Asian regional stock markets were mixed, but European stock futures are pointing to a positive open. Commodities are firmer, with crude up 1.68% and gold up 1.40%. In addition, the VIX continued to decline at a moderate pace, down -4.78%. Online markets are giving presidential candidate Barack Obama roughly a 85% chance of wining the US election, but until the results are officially in markets will be at edge of their seats. Should the bookies be correct, we see this development as a positive for both the Usd and risk sentiment in a whole.
In the UK, CIPS/Market report on manufacturing should continue to fall despite September's absolute collapse (17 year low). Given the volatile nature of this economic, ready markets would expect at least a slight reversal. However, given the significant deterioration in the UK's domestic and global economy we expect further erosion.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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