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US Session: Dollar Maintains Positive Gains, US Stocks Surge in Final Moments of Trading
November 26, 2008 11:24 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Cad | 0.14 |  | | | Chf | 0.12 | | | | Jpy | 0.11 | | | | Gbp | 0.07 | | | | Nok | 0.07 | | | | Nzd | 0.03 | |  | Eur | -0.01 | | | Sek | -0.01 | | | Dkk | -0.02 | | | Aud | -0.11 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA futures | 8,465.00 | + 0.24 | | S&P future | 856.00 | + 0.27 | | Nasdaq futures | 1,161.00 | + 2.25 | | FTSE futures | 4,148.50 | - 0.11 | | CAC futures | 3,170.00 | - 1.15 | | DAX futures | 4,570.00 | - 0.22 | | SMI Futures | 5,478.00 | + 0.42 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 50.64 | - 0.26 | | Gold | 813.38 | - 0.93 | | Silver | 10.34 | + 0.04 | | USD Index | 85.73 | + 0.87 | | VIX | 58.19 | - 4.45 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6758
R 2: 0.6696
R 1: 0.6618
CURRENT: 0.6488
S 1: 0.6333
S 2: 0.6232
S 3: 0.6076
EURJPY
R 3: 131.04
R 2: 128.43
R 1: 126.21
CURRENT: 123.57
S 1: 122.64
S 2: 119.54
S 3: 116.44
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5436
R 2: 1.5345
R 1: 1.5191
CURRENT: 1.5114
S 1: 1.5055
S 2: 1.4965
S 3: 1.4875
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Market Brief |
The dollar carried its recent momentum throughout today’s trading session. The EurUsd sank 186pips to the high range of 1.28, while the UsdJpy declined 40 pips to the mid 95 level. The GbpUsd fell 132pips trading with a 1.53 handle, which is inconsistent with the risk aversion trade seen in recent market activity. Equity markets took their own course with the Dow adding 2.9% or 247pts, despite geopolitical events and a short week due to the US holiday. Bond yields remain compressed with the 2yr at 1% and the 10yr slightly below 3%, these levels are evidentiary that bears are allocating cash to secure assets. Commodities were mixed gold moving higher by 7.8% at $54bbl, and gold marginally lower at $810oz.
Following a terrorist attack in India which left over 70 people dead and others held hostage, the financial markets remained resilient. Dollar strength held its grip on early gains, despite a massive rally in stocks, suggesting that a decoupling in the equity currency correlation may be occurring. This may due in part to the announcement of Obama’s economic team whom will focus on tackling the financial crisis. Without speaking too soon, we should make a more valid assessment when volume increases following the US holiday.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off‐exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
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US Session: Rally in Risk Appetite Losing Steam, Dollar Rises
November 26, 2008 5:20 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Nzd | 0.47 | | | | Aud | 0.04 | | | Jpy | -0.04 | | | Cad | -0.82 | | | Gbp | -1.10 | | | Nok | -1.10 | | | Dkk | -1.45 | | | Eur | -1.46 | | | Chf | -1.68 | | | Sek | -2.01 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 8,511.88 | + 0.38 | | S&P 500 Index | 860.65 | + 0.38 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,489.85 | + 1.72 | | FTSE futures | 4,148.50 | - 0.11 | | CAC futures | 3,170.00 | - 1.15 | | DAX futures | 4,570.00 | - 0.22 | | SMI Futures | 5,478.00 | + 0.42 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 50.64 | - 0.26 | | Gold | 813.38 | - 0.93 | | Silver | 10.34 | + 0.04 | | USD Index | 85.73 | + 0.87 | | VIX | 58.19 | - 4.45 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6758
R 2: 0.6696
R 1: 0.6618
CURRENT: 0.6488
S 1: 0.6333
S 2: 0.6232
S 3: 0.6076
EURJPY
R 3: 131.04
R 2: 128.43
R 1: 126.21
CURRENT: 123.57
S 1: 122.64
S 2: 119.54
S 3: 116.44
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5436
R 2: 1.5345
R 1: 1.5191
CURRENT: 1.5114
S 1: 1.5055
S 2: 1.4965
S 3: 1.4875
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Market Brief |
The dollar gained strength against the majors as rally riskier assets subsides in early trading. The EurUsd fell a bit over 100pips to the mid 1.29 level, while the UsdJpy moved slightly lower to 95. The GbpUsd dropped 125pips to the mid range of 1.53, consistent with the pullback in other asset classes. Equity markets opened lower in the US with the Dow down 100pts, following the trend of European stock indexes. Commodities are mixed with crude oil higher by 2.3% at $51bbl, and gold marginally lower at $814oz. Bond yields fell with the 10 and 30yr tighter by 10 and 8bps respectively, a bit displaced from the risk aversion trade.
Seems the TALF and Citigroup bailouts are becoming a memory to Traders as the rally in stock markets fade, and buyers of secure assets like US treasuries return to the marketplace. The introduction of the EU stimulus plan had little effect on FX prices, the euro remains tightly correlated to movements in other asset classes. The package is worth 1.5% of GDP, which is approximately 200Bln Euros. It will be interesting to see how the capital is deployed, as those details have yet to be announced. ECB President Trichet mentioned the possibility for further rate cuts based on decreasing inflation, and the steep decline in German CPI may support easing in monetary policy. In the UK, GDP came in line with expectations at ‐0.5%, and 0.3% YoY. Private consumption was slightly better than expected at ‐0.2% vs. ‐0.3%, lending further evidence to a deteriorating economic environment.
US Durable goods sank far more than estimated at ‐6.2% vs. ‐3.0%, this is a fairly significant and severely negative data point. The contraction in growth is likely to expand in upcoming quarters, as consumers cut back personal spending, setting the stage for a No relief in the housing sector as new home sales collapsed ‐5.3%, while this is a volatile number we can expect a slight better readings as mortgage rates come down. The risk aversion trade may continue to prop dollar prices, but the economic fundamentals in the US and Europe tell a drastically different story.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off‐exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
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Asian Session - Short Term Optimism Wanes - Back to Safe Haven Buying
November 26, 2008 10:04 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NZD | 0.95 | | | | CAD | 0.59 | | | | AUD | 0.57 | | | | GBP | 0.20 | | | DKK | -0.01 | | | EUR | -0.02 | | | JPY | -0.04 | | | SEK | -0.24 | | | CHF | -0.43 | | | NOK | -0.56 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,213.22 | - 1.33 | | Hang Seng Index | 13,369.45 | + 3.81 | | Shanghai Index | 1,897.88 | + 0.48 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,102.46 | - 1.64 | | CAC 40 Index | 3,156.22 | - 1.66 | | SMI Index | 5,434.18 | - 0.80 | | DJIA futures | 8,423.00 | - 0.26 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 813.55 | - 0.90 | | Silver | 10.25 | - 0.73 | | VIX | 60.90 | - 5.87 | | Crude wti | 50.67 | - 0.19 | | USD Index | 85.26 | + 0.30 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| GDP (Q3 2nd Est) q/q(y/y) | -0.5%,+0.3 | -0.5,+0.3p | UK / 8.30 | | Index of Services (Sep) 3m/3m | -0.4% | -0.3% | UK / 8.30 | | Durable Goods Orders (Oct) | -3.0% | +0.9% | US / 12.30 | | Core Durable Goods Orders (Oct) | -1.6% | -1.0% | US / 12.30 | | Initial Jobless Claims | 537k | 542k | US / 12.30 | | PCE Deflator (Oct) | +3.3% | +4.2% | US / 12.30 | | Core PCE Deflator (Oct) | 0.0%,+2.2 | 0.2%,+2.4 | US / 12.30 | | Personal Income (Oct) | +0.1% | +0.2% | US / 12.30 | | Personal Spending (Oct) | -1.0% | -0.3% | US / 12.30 | | Chicago PMI (Nov) | 37.0 | 37.8 | US / 13.45 | | New Home Sales (Oct) | 441k | 464k | US / 14.00 | | Univ. of Michigan Cons. Conf. Index (Nov Final) | 57.5 | 57.9p | US / 14.00 | | BoJ MPC Minutes (Oct) | -- | -- | JP / 22.50 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6758
R 2: 0.6696
R 1: 0.6618
CURRENT: 0.6488
S 1: 0.6333
S 2: 0.6232
S 3: 0.6076
EURJPY
R 3: 131.04
R 2: 128.43
R 1: 126.21
CURRENT: 123.57
S 1: 122.64
S 2: 119.54
S 3: 116.44
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5436
R 2: 1.5345
R 1: 1.5191
CURRENT: 1.5114
S 1: 1.5055
S 2: 1.4965
S 3: 1.4875
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Market Brief |
The Usd was slightly stronger in the Asian session, as risk appetite wanes. EurUsd traded down from 1.3074 to 1.2961, while UsdJpy slipped from 95.75 to 94.72. Commodity and EM currencies movements were correlated with the resurgence of safe-haven buying. Asian regional indexes are mixed, European stocks are trading slightly higher and US stock futures are currently pointing to a lower open. Crude traded back down to the $50.0bll handle and gold has been stable around the $812.00oz. VIX has been steadily declining and is now trading at 60.90. Market news has been dominated by the Fed announcing two new initiatives in an attempt to grease the wedged credit markets. The latest programs, totaling $800bn, will target consumer loans and mortgages and attempt to decrease consumer borrowing costs and improve credit availability for households.
In Australia total construction done in q3 printed a 4.4% increase, well above expectations of a 1.5% gain and reversing the previous quarter -0.4% reading. The gains were most strongly seen in residential construction and is more a reflection of project management then new construction. While the number points to a decent GDP release next week, we are still expecting a 75bp cut by the RBA at the next meeting.
In the UK, the markets will be watching preliminary GDP release, for Q3 revealed the first quarterly contraction in the domestic economy in over 16 years. The key take-away will be the growth in expenditures, which is likely to show a drop in output as the declines in spending, spread across individuals and companies alike, has taken its toll. Overall, we expect to see growing signs of broad based weakness in the UK economy and signs of further deterioration in coming quarters.
With no other scheduled news or economic releases expected in the European session, the markets will be preparing for the US open. Participants will be watching both the equity markets and a rash of economic data (which look bleak as US contraction in Q3 GDP was confirmed at 0.5% yesterday).
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US Session: Equities Losing Steam, Brace for Correction to the Downside
November 26, 2008 12:04 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Nzd | 0.08 | | | | Gbp | 0.00 | | | | Nok | 0.00 | | | Eur | -0.03 | | | Aud | -0.03 | | | Sek | -0.04 | | | Dkk | -0.05 | | | Chf | -0.10 | | | Jpy | -0.10 | | | Cad | -0.33 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA futures | 8,550.00 | + 1.97 | | S&P future | 864.00 | + 1.89 | | Nasdaq futures | 1,148.00 | + 0.09 | | FTSE futures | 4,206.50 | + 1.13 | | CAC futures | 3,220.50 | + 1.71 | | DAX futures | 4,620.50 | + 0.92 | | SMI Futures | 5,532.00 | + 1.41 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 52.49 | - 3.69 | | Gold | 820.10 | - 0.19 | | Silver | 10.44 | - 1.09 | | USD Index | 84.99 | - 1.27 | | VIX | 62.35 | - 3.63 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6758
R 2: 0.6696
R 1: 0.6596
CURRENT: 0.6426
S 1: 0.6298
S 2: 0.6232
S 3: 0.6076
EURJPY
R 3: 131.04
R 2: 128.43
R 1: 126.21
CURRENT: 124.33
S 1: 119.54
S 2: 116.44
S 3: 115.00
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5684
R 2: 1.5436
R 1: 1.5345
CURRENT: 1.5153
S 1: 1.5055
S 2: 1.4965
S 3: 1.4875
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Market Brief |
The dollar was weaker after a volatile session sliding against most of the majors. The EurUsd rose 95 pips to the mid 1.30 level, while the UsdJpy dropped over 200 pips to the low 95 price area. The GbpUsd gained nearly 300 pips, trading through previous resistance toi 1.5470. Equities closed higher after a day of violent price swings in the excess of 100pts. Asian equity futures are pointing to a lower open, which may be the precursor to a slowdown in the recent rally in global stock markets. Bond yields were mostly the 2 and 10yr higher by a bp, and 30yr slightly tighter. Commodities are beginning to trail off as crude oil falls 7% to $50bbl, and gold marginally lower at $820oz.
The market disregarded an ample amount of economic data released in Europe and the US, as FX prices continued to trend with stock prices. Additional action taken by the govt. ease market stresses through TALF (Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility) has mild success but the real effects are likely to be felt further into the down cycle. Negative GDP growth in the US and Germany confirm worsening economic conditions, and should serve as warning signs that major price corrections in the FX market may be ahead when fundamentals return.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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