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US Session: Dollar Strength Continues Trade in Tandem With Risk Aversion
November 11, 2008 10:35 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Jpy | 0.33 |  |  | Chf | -0.71 | | | Cad | -1.02 | | | Nzd | -1.19 | | | Gbp | -1.43 | | | Dkk | -1.67 | | | Eur | -1.71 | | | Aud | -1.80 | | | Nok | -2.35 | | | Sek | -2.78 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA futures | 8,645.00 | - 2.72 | | S&P future | 893.50 | - 3.04 | | Nasdaq futures | 1,222.00 | - 2.75 | | FTSE futures | 4,246.50 | - 3.54 | | CAC futures | 3,326.00 | - 4.75 | | DAX futures | 4,830.00 | - 4.22 | | SMI Futures | 5,912.00 | - 3.00 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 58.74 | - 5.86 | | Gold | 732.73 | - 1.81 | | Silver | 9.79 | - 3.88 | | USD Index | 87.08 | + 1.35 | | VIX | 61.44 | + 2.43 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7357
R 2: 0.7240
R 1: 0.7065
CURRENT: 0.6878
S 1: 0.6550
S 2: 0.6339
S 3: 0.6011
EURJPY
R 3: 131.50
R 2: 131.05
R 1: 127.72
CURRENT: 127.58
S 1: 122.25
S 2: 121.40
S 3: 113.65
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5160
R 2: 1.5147
R 1: 1.5079
CURRENT1.4901
S 1: 1.4645
S 2: 1.4585
S 3: 1.4555
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Market Brief |
The dollar rose in intraday trading based on rising risk aversion in the marketplace. The EurUsd sunk over 200 pips to the low 1.25 area, while the UsdJpy was marginally lower to the high range of 97. The GbpUsd dropped nearly 200 pips finding support near the 1.54 level. Equity markets traded substantially lower with European stock indexes like the DAX, CAC, and FTSE leading the way. Both the Dow and SPX (S&P500) are off about 2%, as GM and AMEX lead the way reflecting the severe effect of the credit crisis. Bond markets are closed in the US in observance of Veteran’s Day, however 10yr bond yields in Australia and New Zealand saw considerable tightening. Commodities continue to erode with oil down 5.3% to $59bbl and gold lower by 1.35% at $735oz.
The German ZEW data came in better than expected at -53.5 vs. -63.0, which was consistent with the higher than estimated Eurozone ZEW reading of -54.0 vs. -60.5. The stronger data shouldn’t be taken with full credibility, but a correction from the prior negative reading. The consumer confidence index remains sensitive to trends in the equity markets supporting the recent relationship between risk appetite and trading. ECB President Trichet stated that the central bank is dedicated to achieving price stability. He did also acknowledge that inflationary pressure is under control, providing for further rate cuts. In the UK, the RICS house price index was slightly better than projected at -82% vs. -86%. The UK trade deficit decreased to -3863GBP from -4737GBP. Despite the slight improvement in economic news, the sterling took a pounding as FX price behavior has been closely tied with patterns in other asset classes.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
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Asian Session - Sentiment Shifts Quickly
November 11, 2008 9:59 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NZD | 0.52 | | | | CHF | 0.22 | | | | CAD | 0.08 | | | | GBP | 0.04 | | | JPY | -0.04 | | | DKK | -0.06 | | | EUR | -0.17 | | | AUD | -0.20 | | | NOK | -0.21 | | | SEK | -0.25 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,809.30 | - 2.99 | | Hang Seng Index | 14,029.02 | - 4.85 | | Shanghai Index | 1,843.61 | - 1.66 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,336.59 | - 1.52 | | DAX Index | 4,910.75 | - 2.28 | | SMI Index | 5,973.75 | - 2.28 | | DJIA futures | 8,857.00 | - 0.33 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 745.73 | - 0.06 | | Silver | 10.21 | + 0.24 | | VIX | 59.98 | + 6.91 | | Crude wti | 60.76 | - 2.66 | | USD Index | 85.87 | + 0.06 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Trade in Goods & Services Balance (Sep) | -£4.7bn | -£4.8bn | UK / 8.30 | | Trade in Goods Balance (Sep) | -£8.0bn | -£8.2bn | UK / 8.30 | | CLG House Prices (Sep) | -5.4% | -3.4% | UK / 8.30 | | ZEW Survey (Nov) | -63.0 | -63.0 | GE / 9.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7239
R 2: 0.7065
R 1: 0.7015
CURRENT: 0.6690
S 1: 0.6652
S 2: 0.6546
S 3: 0.6339
EURJPY
R 3: 132.24
R 2: 131.06
R 1: 128.44
CURRENT: 124.73
S 1: 123.81
S 2: 124.23
S 3: 122.25
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5147
R 2: 1.5078
R 1: 1.4988
CURRENT: 1.5011
S 1: 1.4772
S 2: 1.4647
S 3: 1.4585
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Market Brief |
The Usd was stronger in the Asian session, as the positive sentiment from China $570 stimulus package quickly wore off. The key driver was negative news from US financial and corporate equities, which pushed down equity markets. Risk aversion increased on reports that the government had altered the AIG bailout plan from the original $123bn deal, with a $150bn bailout package and Circuit City, a major US retailer, filed for bankruptcy. The EurUsd continued to trend lower from 1.2797 to 1.2675, while the UsdJpy was range bound from 97.60 to 98.30. Commodity markets were surprisingly unaffected by China's action and failed to insight a spark in the commodity currencies. The AudUsd was range bound from 0.6760 to 0.6650 and the UsdNok, in spiky trading, jumped to 6.8649 down to 6.7854. As a clear signal to the bearish sentiment surrounds global growth, crude prices are now hovering around the $60.00bll handle, down -2.74%. Yesterday's Wall Street session lacked buyers, as bad news scared bulls away. The negative sentiment carried over into Asian regional index, which are all currently trading lower. European stocks are pointing to a mixed open.
In Japan, Economy Watchers Survey household DI, which shows consumer sentiment from the corporate point of view, fell more than expected. There were steep declines for retail and housing, due to the financial market 's turbulence. Sentiment appears to have not find a bottom, as worsening economic conditions take their toll. Respondents indicated changes in purchasing behavior, as they brace for the worst.
With a light calendar today (with German ZEW being the highlight), we will have traders watching the news tickers and equity market prices. Currency price action will be complete under the influence of risk sentiment, with the Usd & Jpy the biggest gainers would concerns arise.
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US Session: Rally Following China Stimulus Plan Short Lived
November 11, 2008 12:47 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Nzd | 0.44 | | | | Gbp | 0.21 | | | | Aud | 0.17 | | | | Nok | 0.16 | | | | Cad | 0.06 | | | | Chf | 0.01 | | | | Dkk | 0.01 | | | | Eur | 0.01 | | | | Sek | 0.01 | | | Jpy | -0.09 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA futures | 8,857.00 | - 0.34 | | S&P future | 918.60 | - 0.32 | | Nasdaq futures | 1,252.75 | - 0.30 | | FTSE futures | 4,402.50 | + 1.10 | | CAC futures | 3,492.00 | + 0.90 | | DAX futures | 5,043.00 | + 2.16 | | SMI Futures | 6,095.00 | + 1.21 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 62.16 | - 0.40 | | Gold | 746.88 | + 0.09 | | Silver | 10.22 | + 0.30 | | USD Index | 85.91 | + 0.01 | | VIX | 59.98 | + 6.92 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7357
R 2: 0.7240
R 1: 0.7065
CURRENT: 0.6878
S 1: 0.6550
S 2: 0.6339
S 3: 0.6011
EURJPY
R 3: 131.50
R 2: 131.05
R 1: 127.72
CURRENT: 127.58
S 1: 122.25
S 2: 121.40
S 3: 113.65
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5160
R 2: 1.5147
R 1: 1.5079
CURRENT1.4901
S 1: 1.4645
S 2: 1.4585
S 3: 1.4555
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Market Brief |
The dollar ended mostly flat against the majors in the US trading session. The EurUsd rose roughly 30 pips to the mid range of 1.27, while the UsdJpy traded through previous support to the high 97 level. The GbpUsd slipped 20 pips putting the pair in the low 1.56 price area. Equity markets suffered losses with the Dow down nearly 1% or 73pts and the SPX (S&P500) lower by 1.27% or 11.78pts. European stock indexes were mixed with the Dax exceptionally higher, up 1.75% or 87pts and the SMI stronger by 1.37% or 82pts. Bond yields have tightened to frightening levels in the 2yr Treasury, the current rate is at historically low levels of 1.24% off 2bps from Friday’s close. The current rise in bond prices, support the notion that extreme risk aversion is still a major factor within the marketplace. Commodities were mostly mixed with oil up 2.24% at $62bbl and gold barely changed at $747oz.
The theme of govt. bailouts within the struggling financial sector and public widespread economic stimulus continue to be controlling factors in the global markets. China announced a $586bln stimulus plan which sparked a brief rally in risk appetite, but resulted in another negative day for higher yielding assets. Both the Euro and the Sterling rallied on this news, but retracted earlier gains towards the end the trading the day. We need to see a break in the recent trend of trades based on extreme risk aversion before the fundamentals become a price driver again. UK PPI dropped substantially but did little to lift the Sterling whereas in a more stable environment this data would have had a stronger affect. French Industrial production dropped less than expected at -0.5% vs. -0.6%, but similar to the UK data it had minimal effect on price behavior. We are likely to see more significant changes following the inauguration day, in which the next G20 meeting will be with a new US President.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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