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US Session:
October 29, 2008 3:34 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Nzd | 2.21 |  | | | Aud | 1.52 | | | | Sek | 1.31 | | | | Nok | 1.26 | | | | Cad | 1.15 | | | | Gbp | 1.14 | | | | Jpy | 1.14 | | | | Dkk | 0.85 | | | | Chf | 0.82 | | | | Eur | 0.77 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA futures | 9,039.79 | - 0.28 | | S&P 500 Index | 936.48 | - 0.43 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,641.63 | - 0.48 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,148.90 | + 5.67 | | CAC 40 Index | 3,333.64 | + 7.02 | | DAX Index | 4,783.65 | - 0.83 | | SMI Index | 5,844.80 | + 5.53 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 66.90 | + 6.65 | | Gold | 761.80 | + 1.99 | | Silver | 9.69 | + 5.33 | | USD Index | 85.83 | - 1.38 | | VIX | 66.96 | - 16.36 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6826
R 2: 0.6752
R 1: 0.6531
CURRENT: 0.6400
S 1: 0.6011
S 2: 0.5929
S 3: 0.5882
EURJPY
R 3: 136.39
R 2: 131.49
R 1: 127.33
CURRENT: 123.08
S 1: 120.23
S 2: 114.41
S 3: 113.64
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5310
R 2: 1.5200
R 1: 1.5189
CURRENT: 1.5021
S 1: 1.4831
S 2: 1.4801
S 3: 1.4732
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Market Brief |
Risk Aversion continues to be a key driver in the market place, as the dollar extended yesterday’s losses against most of the majors. The EurUsd rose over 130 pips to low range of 1.28, while the UsdJpy fell 112 pips to high 96 level. The GbpUsd soared 230 pips to 1.61 as pair has traded consistently with the appetite for riskier assets. Equity markets were mixed with the Dow slightly lower following the 10% jump in the previous trading session. European stock indexes rose with the exception of the DAX, which has been largely influenced by the recent activity surrounding Volkswagen. Bond yields tightened across the curve with the 2yr lower by 8bps and the 10yr by 3bps. Commodities climbed higher across the board as crude oil gained 3.76% to $66bbl, and gold up 1.75% to $760oz.
German CPI came in better than expected at -0.3% vs. -0.2% exp, which is largely due in part to lower energy prices. Lower inflation should definitely relieve the consumer from pressure felt in the housing and credit sectors. The market will be watching closely for more clarity regarding the global easing in monetary policy, which should be a driver in Eurodollar trading. In the UK, money supply rose 1.5% vs. the prior reading of 1.4%. Net consumer credit retracted drastically as the reading was announced at 0.3B vs. 1.0B exp. Lastly, mortgage approvals were slightly better than anticipated at 33k vs. the consensus figure of 33k. The economic picture which looked very bleak is showing glimmers of hope, but the credit situation has a long way to go before we can call this the beginning of a recovery.
The FOMC rate decision is scheduled to be announced and the market is looking for a 50bps cut to 1.00%. The action in monetary policy is most likely priced in by Traders, the key driver in price behavior will be more a clearer time frame for the end of the financial crisis. We are seeing certain points evidence that suggest the economy is improving, durable goods orders stronger than estimates at 0.8% and also an increase in mortgage applications to 16.8% vs. -16.6% last month. US GDP will be released tomorrow and the reading will most likely be negative. This really wouldn’t surprise the market as the recent appreciation in the dollar has constrained exports. Once a consistent pattern of positive economic data is established, we should look for a divergence from the extreme risk aversion trading.
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Asian Session - Waiting on the FOMC
October 29, 2008 9:38 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NZD | 3.98 | | | | SEK | 3.13 | | | | GBP | 2.61 | | | | NOK | 2.60 | | | | AUD | 2.26 | | | | DKK | 1.79 | | | | EUR | 1.79 | | | | CAD | 1.70 | | | | CHF | 0.94 | |  | JPY | -0.51 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,211.90 | + 7.74 | | Hang Seng Index | 12,593.56 | - 0.02 | | Shanghai Index | 1,719.81 | - 2.93 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,009.14 | + 2.10 | | DAX Index | 4,823.45 | + 11.27 | | SMI Index | 5,792.82 | + 11.27 | | DJIA futures | 8,913.00 | - 1.93 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 749.44 | + 0.33 | | Silver | 9.31 | + 1.14 | | VIX | 66.96 | - 16.36 | | Crude wti | 64.46 | + 2.73 | | USD Index | 86.27 | - 0.82 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| BoE Mortgage Approvals (Sep) | 32k | 32k | UK / 9.30 | | M4 Money Supply (Sep Final) | -- | 1.4%,+12.2 | UK / 9.30 | | Durable Goods Orders (Sep) | -1.0% | -4.8% | US / 12.30 | | Core Durable Goods Orders (Sep) | -1.5% | -3.3% | US / 12.30 | | Norges Bank Interest Rate Announcement | 4.75% | 5.25% | NOK / 13.00 | | MPC Member Blanchflower Speaks in Canterbury | -- | -- | UK / 17.00 | | Fed Interest Rate Announcement | 1.00% | 1.50% | US / 18.15 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6826
R 2: 0.6752
R 1: 0.6531
CURRENT: 0.6400
S 1: 0.6011
S 2: 0.5929
S 3: 0.5882
EURJPY
R 3: 136.39
R 2: 131.49
R 1: 127.33
CURRENT: 123.08
S 1: 120.23
S 2: 114.41
S 3: 113.64
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5310
R 2: 1.5200
R 1: 1.5189
CURRENT: 1.5021
S 1: 1.4831
S 2: 1.4801
S 3: 1.4732
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Market Brief |
The Usd was weaker in Asian session, as risk sentiment firmed on the back of the massive Wall Street surge. The EurUsd traded up to 1.2839 from 1.2471, while the UsdJpy moved higher on the open to 99.70, before slipping down to 96.09. Commodity currencies found buyers, with the AudUsd trading higher to 0.6532. The UsdNok fell to 6.6860, as crude prices rallied. Carry trades seem to have found a base and with easing risk aversion is regaining ground. The story today is Wall Street buying euphoria, with S&P up 10.78% (despite consumer confidence hitting a record low of 38.0). However, the jubilation failed to carry over into Asia, with a majority of the regional markets trading lower (Nikkei 7.74% as rumors of a BoJ 25bp rate cut circulate ). European futures are point to a higher open, as a VW new exalted status has breathed new life into the continents equity markets. The prospects of central banks easing interest rates, starting with today today's FOMC announcement, has been the core driver to price action as the effects carry over into the equity markets. Should we see another strong day in stocks, watch for the G10 to continue to rally against the Usd & Jpy.
Markets will be keeping their power dry for the Fed decision slated for 18.15gmt today. The market is expecting a 50bp cut, but, more importantly, the Fed has signaled that 1.00% is not necessarily the floor and additional cut are on the table. We expect the accompannying statement to stick a similar note to that release, with the coordinated interbank rate cut. It should highlight the fact that the financial crisis will likely restrain growth and the upside risk to inflation has decreased (as commodity prices have eased and prospects of a global slowdown).
For the Norges Bank policy decision today, we are in line with consensus and expect a 25bp cut. While inflation continued to run above the central banks comfort level, the downside risk to growth has moved to the forefront of concerns. The move should help the stability of the financial market and provide much needed liquidity.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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