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US Session: Tremendous Decline in Majors and EM Currencies
October 24, 2008 5:39 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Jpy | 4.53 |  | | | Chf | 0.47 | | | | Nok | 0.14 | |  | Dkk | -2.06 | | | Eur | -2.11 | | | Cad | -2.11 | | | Sek | -2.61 | | | Gbp | -2.75 | | | Nzd | -6.08 | | | Aud | -7.30 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 8,691.25 | + 2.02 | | S&P 500 Index | 908.11 | + 1.26 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,603.91 | - 0.73 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,087.83 | 0.00 | | CAC 40 Index | 3,310.87 | + 0.39 | | DAX Index | 4,519.70 | - 1.12 | | SMI Index | 5,893.73 | - 0.54 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 69.32 | + 2.18 | | Gold | 724.20 | + 0.38 | | Silver | 9.74 | + 0.62 | | USD Index | 85.36 | - 0.01 | | VIX | 67.80 | - 2.66 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3. 0.7355
R 2: 0.7239
R 1: 0.7076
CURRENT: 0.6372
S 1: 0.6503
S 2: 0.6496
S 3: 0.6331
EURJPY
R 3: 136.39
R 2: 131.48
R 1: 127.32
CURRENT: 120.02
S 1: 121.34
S 2: 120.30
S 3: 119.02
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5200
R 2: 1.5189
R 1: 1.5095
CURRENT: 1.5067
S 1: 1.4732
S 2: 1.4667
S 3: 1.4551
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Market Brief |
The Usd skyrocketed in intraday trading putting its counterparts at historical lows. The EurUsd fell 240pips to the high range of 1.26, while the UsdJpy declined 400pips to the low 93 price area. The GbpUsd dropped substantially with to the 1.56 level losing nearly 600 pips overnight. Equity markets extended losses into current session, with the Dow lower by 400pts and the FTSE weaker by 295pts. Bond markets rallied in the US on the back of risk aversion, the 2yr yields tightened by 15bps to 1.45%. Commodity prices experienced a massive pullback with oil prices down 5% to $64bbl, and gold off 1.8% at 708oz.
Economic data was disappointing in Europe, Eurozone PMI came in lower than expected at 46.9 vs. 47.0. In addition, Italian Business confidence slid to 77.7 vs. 81.7 adding to the story of waning growth in the region. The Euro has taken its own course trading more in line with market sentiment, placing an atypical amount of selling pressure against the currency. In the UK, GDP was worse than expected at-0.5%, confirming Mervyn King’s affirmation of a recession. The Sterling experienced a major selloff by FX Traders as implied volatility soared to 27%. We maintain a cautiously bearish stance, with no hard data to signal a bottom as of yet in GbpUsd.
Existing home sales surged to 5.5% vs. a reading of -2.2%, surprisingly good news but also a misleading data point at times. The percentage of sales due to foreclosures skew the home sales figure, and historical trends show that it is a very volatile reading. Investors are desperately looking for signs of a recovery, as any turnaround will rely largely on stabilization in the housing market. The recent price behavior in the dollar has caused a retraction in commodities and emerging market growth.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change
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Asian Session - Markets Bearish Sentiment Continues......
October 24, 2008 10:15 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 2.34 | | | NOK | -0.66 | | | CHF | -0.76 | | | CAD | -1.25 | | | EUR | -1.41 | | | NZD | -1.45 | | | DKK | -1.47 | | | GBP | -1.82 | | | SEK | -2.24 | | | AUD | -3.30 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 7,649.08 | - 9.59 | | Hang Seng Index | 12,714.97 | - 7.59 | | Shanghai Index | 1,839.62 | - 1.91 | | FTSE 100 Index | 3,932.87 | - 3.79 | | DAX Index | 4,289.14 | - 5.10 | | SMI Index | 5,700.04 | - 3.28 | | DJIA futures | 8,333.00 | - 5.02 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 703.63 | - 2.47 | | Silver | 9.19 | - 5.06 | | VIX | 67.80 | - 2.65 | | Crude wti | 66.55 | - 1.90 | | USD Index | 86.36 | + 1.17 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| PMI Manufacturing (Oct Prov.) | 44.0 | 45.0 | EZ / 8.00 | | PMI Services (Oct Prov.) | 47.0 | 48.4 | EZ / 8.00 | | PMI Composite (Oct Prov.) | 45.4 | 46.9 | EZ / 8.00 | | GDP (Q3 Prov.) | -0.2%,+0.5 | 0.0%,+1.5% | UK / 8.30 | | Index of Services (Aug) 3m/3m | -0.1% | 0.0% | UK / 8.30 | | ECB’s Gonzalez-Paramo on global outlook | -- | -- | EZ / 10.45 | | ECB’s Nowotny, Tumpel-Gugerell speak in Vienna | -- | -- | EZ / 13.30 | | Existing Home Sales (Sep) | 4,950K | 4,910K | US / 14.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3. 0.7355
R 2: 0.7239
R 1: 0.7076
CURRENT: 0.6372
S 1: 0.6503
S 2: 0.6496
S 3: 0.6331
EURJPY
R 3: 136.39
R 2: 131.48
R 1: 127.32
CURRENT: 120.02
S 1: 121.34
S 2: 120.30
S 3: 119.02
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5200
R 2: 1.5189
R 1: 1.5095
CURRENT: 1.5067
S 1: 1.4732
S 2: 1.4667
S 3: 1.4551
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Market Brief |
The Usd continued to appreciate in the Asian session, as concerns over Emerging Market mount. It seems that worries over the US economy and global financial system have been replaced with broader apprehension over the depth of the global growth slowdown, generating an extensive and far reaching bearish sentiment. EurUsd traded up to 1.3000, as risk appetite improved, before rapidly selling of to 1.2668 session lows. The Jpy was stronger across the board, as UsdJpy fell to 94.77 (13-year low) and yen fueled carry trades came under significant pressure. There was no temporary reprieve from Gbp selling, as the cable dropped to 1.5831 from 1.6327. Yesterday, Wall Street was able to claw its way into the green, with S&P climbing 1.26%. Yet, Asian regional indexes failed to capitalize on the positive momentum, as weak earnings from South Korea scared investors. The Nikkei is currently down -9.59% and European markets look grim, with the CAC -4.94%. The commodity complex is down, as traders perceive that any investment which will be affected in the coming global recession is a must sell. We see the current FX trend continuing for the remainder of the day, with Usd and Jpy the main beneficiaries of G10, carry and EM selling.
Given the anxiety currently driving markets today, UK provisional estimate of Q3 GDP should evoke a significant reaction. We expect -0.2% to reflect Britain ’s economic downturn and the start of a prolonged contraction. We don’t expect the markets bearish Gbp sentiment to turn, after seeing this pessimistic number and pressure on the Sterling should continue….next stop 1.5618. In the Eurozone participants will be watching PMI surveys, which are likely to suggest that output in the area has contract once again. Disturbingly, the new orders balances should grind lower and the employment index downward trend seems to be set.
There is significant event risk surrounding todays OPEC meeting. The market have priced in a 1.5 mio barrel cut. Anything more could be interpretive as an indication of weak global demand and trigger additional selling across asset classes.
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US Session: Dollar Remains Resilient In Volatile Market
October 24, 2008 12:57 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Nok | 0.08 | | | | Eur | 0.07 | | | | Dkk | 0.04 | | | | Chf | 0.04 | | | | Cad | 0.03 | | | | Nzd | 0.00 | | | Gbp | -0.02 | | | Aud | -0.404 | | | Jpy | -0.12 | | | Sek | -0.20 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA futures | 8,748.00 | - 0.30 | | S&P future | 913.90 | - 0.14 | | Nasdaq futures | 1,249.00 | - 0.36 | | FTSE futures | 4,073.00 | + 0.98 | | CAC futures | 3,309.50 | + 0.43 | | DAX futures | 4,526.00 | - 0.98 | | SMI Futures | 5,915.00 | - 0.56 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 69.32 | + 2.18 | | Gold | 724.20 | + 0.38 | | Silver | 9.74 | + 0.62 | | USD Index | 85.36 | - 0.01 | | VIX | 67.80 | - 2.66 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7355
R 2: 0.7239
R 1: 0.7076
CURRENT: 0.6717
S 1: 0.6540
S 2: 0.6496
S 3: 0.6331
EURJPY
R 3: 138.57
R 2: 136.39
R 1: 131.48
CURRENT: 125.72
S 1: 123.00
S 2: 122.88
S 3: 121.34
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5189
R 2: 1.5086
R 1: 1.5057
CURRENT: 1.5017
S 1: 1.4732
S 2: 1.4667
S 3: 1.4551
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Market Brief |
The Usd continues its positive trend against most of the majors as risk aversion remains the central theme in the marketplace. The EurUsd is marginally lower trading at the low range of 1.28, while the UsdJpy declined 123pips to the mid 96 price area. The GbpUsd fell 100 pips trading with a 1.61 handle as the price continues to deteriorate. Equity markets were mixed with the Dow closing higher by 172pts in the US, while DAX slid a little over 50pts in the European session. Interest rate markets were volatile with yields higher by 4bps on the 2yr and tighter by 4bps at the latter end of the curve. The energy sector of commodities traded higher with oil up 2.5% at$68bbl, while gold decreased 1.3% to $720oz.
Data was light out of the Eurozone, and the euro continued its slide to the downside. In the UK, retail sales were lower by 0.4% vs. 0.7% expected, which still represents anemic growth in the region. In addition, mortgage loan activity was slightly higher but the reading weak at 23k. The credit markets are still in the process of thawing out and Traders will continue to reallocate their cash out of risk prone vehicles. UK GDP is likely to confirm that the country is in recession, as projections are negative. The sterling has collapsed in the last several days with significant momentum behind the price movement. We are looking for the cable to trade through the 1.60 support level in the near-term, we will monitor closely how the market prices in fundamentals through the end of the year. Initial jobless claims in the US came in at 478k vs. 468k, but the dollar has persevered based on overall risk aversion, and this is a major factor in assessing performance within the G10.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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