|
|
US Session: Positive Data Out of the US Surprises the Market, Euro and Cable Slide
October 20, 2008 5:28 PM CEST
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Aud | 1.05 |  | | | Nzd | 0.98 | | | | Jpy | 0.13 | |  | Nok | -0.49 | | | Dkk | -0.72 | | | Eur | -0.73 | | | Sek | -0.81 | | | Gbp | -0.92 | | | Cad | -0.96 | | | Chf | -1.15 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| DJIA Index | 8,933.06 | + 0.91 | | S&P 500 Index | 949.39 | + 0.94 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,704.97 | - 0.37 | | FTSE futures | 4,226.50 | + 4.75 | | CAC futures | 3,424.50 | + 2.84 | | DAX futures | 4,862.50 | + 1.20 | | SMI Futures | 6,205.00 | + 1.61 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Crude wti | 73.40 | + 2.16 | | Gold | 787.00 | + 0.47 | | Silver | 9.63 | + 2.67 | | USD Index | 83.19 | + 0.94 | | VIX | 63.73 | - 9.38 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7355
R 2: 0.7239
R 1: 0.7076
CURRENT: 0.7020
S 1: 0.6883
S 2: 0.6731
S 3: 0.6496
EURJPY
R 3: 144.61
R 2: 141.74
R 1: 139.36
CURRENT: 138.23
S 1: 135.95
S 2: 133.38
S 3: 132.24
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5086
R 2: 1.4980
R 1: 1.4849
CURRENT: 1.4766
S 1: 1.4667
S 2: 1.4551
S 3: 1.4489
|
|
Market Brief |
The Usd rose against most of the majors in the early trading session as risk aversion continues to drive markets. The EurUsd fell nearly 100 pips to the low 1.33 area, while the UsdJpy experienced marginal gains trading at the high range of 101. The GbpUsd collapsed following an economic announcement out of the US, the pair is trading at the mid range of 1.71. The equity markets rallied with the Dow up roughly 150pts pushing the index above 9000, European stocks are also positive with the FTSE rising 3.6%. Bond yields were mixed with the 2yr higher by 2bps, while the latter part of the curve showed a slight contraction. Commodities rose across the aboard with oil higher by 2.6% and gold trading closely to Friday’s close.
The Dutch government followed the recent trend of intervention by the EU to rescue banks and stabilize the financial crisis. Over the weekend, Dutch officials injected $14bln into ING one of the world’s largest insurers in an effort to boost their capital position. The ECB is likely to remain focused on downside risks based on the economic conditions. The UK faces further pressure due to weakness in the housing sector, the rightmove home price index fell to its lowest levels in 6 years. Housing has been a serious issue globally constraining the economy in both Europe and the U.S. We are looking for levels on the sterling below 1.70 before year-end, as currency prices come back in line with fundamentals.
Leading economic indicators came in better than expected, which boosted the dollar and the equity markets in the US. The consensus figure for Leading Economic Indicators was -0.1% vs. the actual reading of 0.3%, truly a surprise to the upside. Economic data will be critical in timing the duration of the current downturn. The slowdown is likely to last into Q2 2009, but if a pattern of consistency builds to the positive side, we may start to see a recovery a bit earlier.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
|
|
Asian Session - FX Markets Calm
October 20, 2008 9:31 AM CEST
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | GBP | 1.03 | | | | SEK | 0.98 | | | | AUD | 0.89 | | | | NOK | 0.44 | | | | DKK | 0.40 | | | | EUR | 0.40 | | | | CAD | 0.28 | | | | NZD | 0.23 | | | | CHF | 0.06 | | | JPY | -0.56 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,005.59 | + 3.58 | | Hang Seng Index | 15,346.20 | + 5.44 | | Shanghai Index | 1,969.10 | + 1.99 | | FTSE futures | 4,035.00 | + 4.90 | | DAX futures | 4,957.00 | + 3.16 | | SMI Futures | 6,107.00 | + 6.15 | | DJIA futures | 8,973.00 | + 2.30 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 806.80 | + 2.99 | | Silver | 9.81 | + 4.64 | | VIX | 70.33 | + 4.02 | | Crude wti | 73.94 | + 2.90 | | USD Index | 82.19 | - 0.72 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| Public Finances (Sep) PSNB | +£6.6bn | +£10.4bn | UK / 8.30 | | M4 Money Supply (Sep Prov.) | 0.9%(+11.3 | 1.4%(+11.5 | UK / 8.30 | | ECB’s Tumpel-Gugerell on Retail Banking | -- | -- | EZ / 12.00 | | Wholesales Sales | -1.0% | -0.5% | CA / 12.30 | | Int'l Sec. Transactions | c$1.000 | -c$5.596 | CA / 12.30 | | Index of Leading Indicators (Sep) | -0.2% | -0.5% | US / 14.00 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7355
R 2: 0.7239
R 1: 0.7076
CURRENT: 0.7020
S 1: 0.6883
S 2: 0.6731
S 3: 0.6496
EURJPY
R 3: 144.61
R 2: 141.74
R 1: 139.36
CURRENT: 138.23
S 1: 135.95
S 2: 133.38
S 3: 132.24
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5086
R 2: 1.4980
R 1: 1.4849
CURRENT: 1.4766
S 1: 1.4667
S 2: 1.4551
S 3: 1.4489
|
|
Market Brief |
The Usd was stable in the Asian session, as a lack of real data kept traders on the sidelines. In comparison to the last few weekends - much calmer with the news that ING, would receive a Eur 10bn injection from the Dutch government. In Asia, South Korea announced Asia's largest financial rescue package, which help lift regional stock markets. EurUsd traded up from 1.3401 to 1.3501 and UsdJpy traded up from 101.42 to 102.26. AudUsd continued to strengthen up to 0.7018, while GbpUsd generated some buying interest trading up to 1.7440. Carry Trades performed well, as risk aversion decreased and LIBOR rates have gradually contracted, but still well elevated. Globally, governments and central bankers have signaled they will do whatever they can, at any cost, to prevent a financial sector meltdown. Friday's Wall Street uneventful close was a positive sign that the Government interventions have created a potential bottom to equity markets. Asian regional equity indexes are all higher and European stock futures are pointing to a positive open. Commodities are trading higher with gold trading at $806.80oz and wti crude $73.94bll, up 2.90%.
The Usd continues to play the role of safe-haven currency, due in part to repatriation by US asset managers. So, as risk aversion decreases, we expect to see some greenback selling. However, with slower global growth and prospects of cuts by central banks in Europe and beyond, we expect the Usd to stay firm over the mid term.
No major events or data releases schedule in European session.
|
|
ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
|