|
|
US Session: FX Markets Trade on Volatility and Risk Aversion
October 17, 2008 5:52 PM CEST
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Sek | 0.59 |  | | | Chf | 0.36 | | | | Jpy | 0.23 | | | | Nok | 0.00 | |  | Eur | -0.13 | | | Dkk | -0.13 | | | Gbp | -0.16 | | | Aud | -0.29 | | | Cad | -0.38 | | | Nzd | -0.64 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| DJIA Index | 8,908.69 | - 0.79 | | S&P 500 Index | 942.18 | - 0.45 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,712.06 | - 0.33 | | FTSE futures | 4,058.00 | + 5.54 | | CAC futures | 3,220.00 | + 1.34 | | DAX futures | 4,807.50 | + 4.10 | | SMI Futures | 6,107.00 | + 6.15 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Crude wti | 71.62 | + 2.53 | | Gold | 781.50 | - 2.87 | | Silver | 9.32 | - 3.67 | | USD Index | 82.38 | - 0.10 | | VIX | 71.42 | + 5.64 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7239
R 2: 0.7076
R 1: 0.6800
CURRENT: 0.6690
S 1: 0.6496
S 2: 0.6331
S 3: 0.6289
EURJPY
R 3: 141.74
R 2: 139.36
R 1: 135.72
CURRENT: 134.86
S 1: 133.38
S 2: 132.24
S 3: 130.62
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5086
R 2: 1.4980
R 1: 1.4849
CURRENT: 1.4820
S 1: 1.4667
S 2: 1.4551
S 3: 1.4489
|
|
Market Brief |
The Usd rose against most of the G10, with the exception of some Asian crosses. The EurUsd was marginally lower at the mid 1.34 price level, while the UsdJpy slipped roughly 50 pips to the low range of 101. The GbpUsd declined nearly 60 pips, its currently trading with a 1.72 handle. Equity markets are mixed as the Dow slightly lower, while the FTSE traded higher by 3% in today’s session. Bond yields have yet to recover on US treasuries with the 2yr tighter by 3bps at 1.58% and the 10yr mostly flat still below 4%. Commodities have traded slightly higher with the exception of the gold and silver. Gold sank below the $800 mark to $779, which is consistent with the heightened volatility and trends in other asset classes.
Eurozone trade balance showed a deeper than expected deficit at -9B vs. the consensus figure of -5.5B. The EU met to devise a plan to take action towards resolving issues in the credit markets and stabilize the financial crisis. Traders have already begun making bets that the Sterling will rise against the Euro based on the notion that the BoE will be more aggressive in addressing downside risks. The EurGbp fell substantially, and is likely to fall further until the mechanisms put in place by the ECB take effect.
US economic data came in weaker than expected across the board with the Univ. of Michigan Confidence figure down to 57.5 vs. the estimated reading of 65. This is a critical indicator which really symbolizes the severity of the current state of the economy. In addition, the housing sector continues to suffer with housing starts at 817k vs. the consensus figure of 872k. Despite the underlying economic fundamentals, the dollar remains a safe haven currency and has been more correlated to risk aversion patterns in the marketplace. We expect the dollar to reach a target price of 1.30 by year-end, but rangebound between 1.32-1.36 in the near-term.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMUSA makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
|
|
Asian Session: Risk aversion reigns as Asian equities give back initial gains – Japan remains resilient, up 2%.
October 17, 2008 7:25 AM CEST
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | AUD | 3.62 | | | | NZD | 1.42 | | | | NOK | 1.04 | | | | CAD | 0.83 | | | | GBP | 0.67 | | | | SEK | 0.65 | | | | DKK | 0.41 | | | | EUR | 0.38 | | | CHF | -0.13 | | | JPY | -0.87 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Nikkei 225 Index | 8588 | + 1.96 | | Hang Seng Index | 14962 | - 1.76 | | Shanghai Index | 1961 | + 0.32 | | FTSE futures | 3845 | - 6.17 | | DAX futures | 4618 | - 4.91 | | DJIA futures | 8985 | + 0.21 | | Nasdaq futures | 1323 | + 0.04 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 809.05 | + 0.55 | | Silver | 9.717 | + 0.49 | | VIX | 67.61 | - 2.36 | | Crude wti | 72.1 | + 3.65 | | USD Index | 82.3 | - 0.17 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| Euro Zone Trade Balance | -5.5Bn | -2.3Bn | EUR / 09:00 | | US Housing Starts | 878K | 895K | EUR / 12:30 | | U. of Michigan Confidence | 67 | 70.3 | US / 14:00 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7239
R 2: 0.7076
R 1: 0.6950
CURRENT: 0.6910
S 1: 0.6500
S 2: 0.6331
S 3: 0.6289
EURJPY
R 3: 141.74
R 2: 139.36
R 1: 138.02
CURRENT: 137.06
S 1: 135.55
S 2: 132.24
S 3: 130.62
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5086
R 2: 1.4980
R 1: 1.4849
CURRENT: 1.4776
S 1: 1.4667
S 2: 1.4551
S 3: 1.4489
|
|
Market Brief |
Asian markets opened on the rise this morning as they took to the news of further bank bailouts in Europe. Although general sentiment points to an unwinding of the critical situation of recent weeks, risk aversion remains strong. Global interbank lending rates start to settle as increased liquidity in the markets help unfreeze the current dire situation in financial institutions, the life blood of the global economy – interbank loans – eases substantial market stresses.
The Yen is down 0.8% – Dollar is lower against most currencies except the Yen and Swissy, these two economies seeing sentiment in their equity markets boosted by government action. Swiss government puts near $60Bn at UBS’ disposal while Credit Suisse Recapitalizes through Qatar and other smaller investors. Japanese government steps up it’s efforts to quell market tensions – announcing a JPY1.8Tln.
EURUSD traded lower yesterday as European leaders fail to materialize a definite, much needed response to the current credit crisis – although many promises have been made. The Dollar remains strong – mainly due to safe haven flows, same can be said for the Swiss Franc, which traded higher against the dollar early yesterday. Can we see an end to the new found glory of the dollar? Expect a positive open for Europe – Euro, Swissy and Cable slightly higher in Asian trading. Eurozone Trade balance and U.S housing starts to watch for today.
Gold drops to $780 yesterday before retracing to near $800 levels, where it has traded in a $3 range since Asian opening. Crude reached a recent low yesterday breaking the $70 barrier – however is up 3.6% to $72.4 this morning as analysts expect further unwinding of crude prices as global demand drops. The Vix index is also down, -2.6% after another active session yesterday. Final thought for this morning – is this what recession looks like?
|
|
ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
|